Fard Alborz vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Fard Alborz a 35% home win and 35% draw against Shenavarsazi Qeshm's 30%, framing the advice as a double chance on Fard Alborz or draw combined with under 3.5 goals. That narrow edge is only partly echoed in the comparison metrics, where Fard Alborz lead on form (67 versus 33) and defence (67 versus 33) while attack is level at 50 apiece, suggesting the separation comes more from solidity than scoring power. The Poisson and goals columns, however, read 0.00 for Fard Alborz against 0.00 and 100.00 for the visitors respectively, and the head-to-head split of 20 versus 80 favours Shenavarsazi Qeshm, so the model's own supporting numbers are not uniformly aligned with its lean. The team analysis helps explain that tension: Fard Alborz have one win and one draw from two games with a 0-1 away victory and a 1-1 home draw, while Shenavarsazi Qeshm have drawn both, 2-2 at home and 0-0 away. Both sides therefore arrive unbeaten but with only two fixtures played, a sample small enough that the form and defensive gaps should be treated as indicative rather than established. The goals analysis reinforces the low-scoring expectation behind the -3.5 component, since Fard Alborz have scored twice and conceded once across two matches, and Shenavarsazi Qeshm have also scored twice while conceding twice, with every recorded under-2.5 and under-3.5 line comfortably satisfied. Fard Alborz's goals have both arrived in the 0-15 window and their only concession in the 46-60 window, whereas Shenavarsazi Qeshm's goals are split between the 0-15 and 76-90 periods and both goals against came in the 31-45 window, hinting at different timing patterns rather than a shared scoring surge. The last-five records extend the picture: Fard Alborz show W-D-D-L-W with three clean sheets and no failure to score, while Shenavarsazi Qeshm show D-D-D-L with one clean sheet and one blank, so the visitors' recent profile is more draw-heavy but also includes a 1-3 home defeat. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight, with Shenavarsazi Qeshm winning 1-0 at home in August 2025 and the January 2026 meeting in Fard Alborz's home ending 0-0, meaning Fard Alborz have not beaten this opponent in the two recorded meetings. Overall, the double chance on Fard Alborz or draw rests on their better form and defensive metrics and on a low-goals pattern that supports the under 3.5 element, but the level attack ratings, the unfavourable head-to-head and goals columns, and the very small two-match samples mean the edge is modest and the outcome remains uncertain.

Predicted winner

Fard Alborz

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Fard Alborz or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Fard Alborz 0–0 Shenavarsazi Qeshm (20 Jan 2026)
2. Shenavarsazi Qeshm 1–0 Fard Alborz (29 Aug 2025)