ETSV Hamburg vs Nikola Tesla Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives ETSV Hamburg a 45% home win and 45% draw against Nikola Tesla, leaving only 10% for an away win, and its advice combines the double chance with over 1.5 goals. That split between home and draw is consistent with the comparison metrics, where ETSV lead on form (60 vs 40), attack (61 vs 39), defence (48 vs 52), head-to-head (100 vs 0) and goals (100 vs 0), yet the Poisson metric flips to 64 for Nikola Tesla against 36 for ETSV, so the model's own components are not unanimous. The overall totals are nearly level (51.30 vs 48.80), which helps explain why the model stops short of a clear home win and hedges toward the draw. ETSV's six-match record of two wins, one draw and three defeats is skewed by home form: all three losses came at home, including 1-4 to Buchholz and 2-3 to Harksheide, while their away results were a 4-1 win and a draw. Nikola Tesla's eight matches show two wins, two draws and four defeats, with a four-match losing streak in the sequence, and their away numbers are notably better than their home numbers, including a 3-1 win at Teutonia Ottensen. The goals analysis reinforces the over 1.5 element: ETSV average 2.00 scored and 2.20 conceded, Nikola Tesla 1.50 scored and 1.90 conceded, and neither side has kept a clean sheet, with ETSV failing to score in none of their matches and Nikola Tesla blanked twice at home. The last-five records show ETSV alternating wins and losses with no clean sheet, while Nikola Tesla's most recent five include a 2-2 draw with Concordia, a 3-1 away win, and heavy home defeats such as 0-4 to Süderelbe. The head-to-head is the most extreme evidence but also the smallest sample: ETSV won 6-0 at home in April 2026 and 8-0 away in October 2025, which supports the 100-0 head-to-head and goals splits but rests on only two meetings. Taken together, the evidence supports the double chance and the over 1.5 goals more strongly than it supports a comfortable home win, since ETSV's poor home defence and the Poisson disagreement qualify the 45% home probability.

Predicted winner

ETSV Hamburg

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : ETSV Hamburg or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. ETSV Hamburg 6–0 Nikola Tesla (19 Apr 2026)
2. Nikola Tesla 0–8 ETSV Hamburg (26 Oct 2025)