Estrella Del Sur vs Argentino Rosario Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Estrella Del Sur a 45% home win and 45% draw against Argentino Rosario, leaving only a 10% away win, so the double-chance advice on Estrella Del Sur or draw reflects a fixture the model sees as heavily one-sided toward the home side. That reading is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Estrella Del Sur leads on Poisson (75 versus 25), head-to-head (71 versus 29), goals (60 versus 40) and the aggregate total (58.70 versus 41.30), while the two sides are level on form at 50.00 each. The one comparison that cuts against the home side is attack, where Argentino Rosario scores higher at 57 versus 43, although Estrella Del Sur's superior defence (53 versus 47) offsets that edge. The season records explain much of this: Estrella Del Sur have 10 wins, 11 draws and 8 losses across 29 games with a notably strong home profile of 6 wins, 6 draws and only 2 defeats, whereas Argentino Rosario have just 3 wins, 15 draws and 11 losses, including no away wins at all from 14 attempts. Estrella Del Sur's goals analysis shows a balanced 1.00 goals scored per game but a much tighter 0.60 conceded at home, supported by 8 home clean sheets, while Argentino Rosario average 0.90 scored overall and concede 1.30, rising to 1.80 away with zero away clean sheets. Both teams' last five are winless and low-scoring, with Estrella Del Sur recording three draws and two defeats and Argentino Rosario three draws and two losses, which tempers confidence that the home side will actually convert its structural advantages into a victory. The head-to-head record is small but consistent with the draw-heavy probabilities, showing three meetings without an Estrella Del Sur defeat: 1-1 in May 2026, 0-0 in July 2025 and a 2-1 Estrella Del Sur away win in March 2025. The goal-timing data adds a cautionary note, since both teams concede a large share of goals late (Estrella Del Sur 37.93% and Argentino Rosario 27.03% in the 76-90 window), and Argentino Rosario also concede 32.43% in the 31-45 period, suggesting late swings could unsettle a narrow home lead. Overall, the evidence supports the existing double-chance advice through Estrella Del Sur's defensive solidity, home record and head-to-head edge, but the level form, recent draws and Argentino Rosario's superior attack metric mean a draw is a genuinely plausible outcome rather than a remote one.

Predicted winner

Estrella Del Sur

Betting advice

Double chance : Estrella Del Sur or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Argentino Rosario 1–1 Estrella Del Sur (30 May 2026)
2. Estrella Del Sur 0–0 Argentino Rosario (14 Jul 2025)
3. Argentino Rosario 1–2 Estrella Del Sur (29 Mar 2025)