Italy · Serie D - Girone C

Este vs Conegliano Prediction

Este badgeEste vs Conegliano badgeConegliano

Match prediction

  • Conegliano's superior form and head-to-head record justify the double-chance advice, though Este's home advantage and low scoring suggest a tight match.
  • The near-even split between away win and draw probabilities reflects genuine uncertainty, making the combined draw-or-Conegliano bet the safer expression of the model's lean.
  • Both teams' goal records strongly support the under 3.5 goals selection, as neither side has exceeded that threshold in any recent match.
  • Este's attacking metrics outperform Conegliano's, but their poor home form and failure to score in three of five games undermine that statistical edge.
  • Conegliano's away defensive vulnerability, conceding four in one road match, introduces risk that the double chance does not fully mitigate.
  • The head-to-head history shows low-scoring, closely contested meetings, reinforcing both the draw-or-away advice and the under 3.5 goals expectation.
Predicted winner
Conegliano
Betting advice
Combo Double chance : draw or Conegliano and -3.5 goals
Home win probability
10%
Draw probability
45%
Away win probability
45%
Goals market
-3.5

Prediction comparison

FactorEsteConegliano
Form36.0%64.0%
Attack60.0%40.0%
Defence56.0%44.0%
Poisson49.0%51.0%
H2h20.0%80.0%
Goals33.0%67.0%
Total42.3%57.7%

Team form and goal analysis

Este

Recent form: WLLLD.

Average goals scored: 0.60 per match.

Conegliano

Recent form: LDWWL.

Average goals scored: 0.40 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Conegliano 1–0 Este (01 Feb 2026)
  2. Este 1–1 Conegliano (28 Sep 2025)
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