Essingen vs FC Nöttingen Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Essingen via a double-chance call of “Essingen or draw,” with probabilities of 45% home, 45% draw and only 10% away, so the advice effectively treats a Nöttingen win as the least likely outcome. That framing is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Essingen’s form score of 100.00 dwarfs Nöttingen’s 0.00, and the head-to-head split of 85.00 to 15.00 also favours the home side. The Poisson comparison is far less one-sided at 56.00 to 44.00, which suggests the model’s confidence rests more on recent form and history than on expected-goal modelling. Nöttingen’s attack metric of 67.00 against Essingen’s 33.00 is the clearest counterweight, implying the visitors may still create chances even if they are unlikely to convert them into a win. Both teams’ performance data show Essingen with one win, three draws and four defeats from eight, while Nöttingen have one win and seven losses, so the gap is real but Essingen’s own record is hardly commanding. The goals analysis adds nuance: Essingen average 1.00 goal scored and 1.90 conceded per game, whereas Nöttingen average 1.30 scored but 2.10 conceded, meaning both sides have leaky defences and Nöttingen’s away concession rate of 3.00 per game is especially poor. The last-five records underline the contrast in momentum, with Essingen taking two draws and three defeats, including a 0-4 home loss to CFR Pforzheim, while Nöttingen have lost all five, conceding three or more in three of those matches. The head-to-head record is the strongest single support for the advice, as Essingen have won three of the last six meetings, drawn three and lost none, including a 6-2 home victory in November 2025. However, the most recent head-to-head was a 1-1 draw in May 2026, and the small sample of six matches means the historical edge should be treated as a tendency rather than a guarantee, which is consistent with the model’s cautious double-chance rather than a straight home win.

Predicted winner

Essingen

Betting advice

Double chance : Essingen or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. FC Nöttingen 1–1 Essingen (22 May 2026)
2. Essingen 6–2 FC Nöttingen (08 Nov 2025)
3. FC Nöttingen 1–1 Essingen (26 Apr 2025)
4. Essingen 2–1 FC Nöttingen (12 Oct 2024)
5. Essingen 1–0 FC Nöttingen (02 Mar 2024)