ESMTK vs Dabas Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives ESMTK a 50% home win probability and a 50% draw probability, with Dabas at 0%, producing the advice of a double chance on ESMTK or draw. That output is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where ESMTK leads on form (73 vs 27), attack (67 vs 33), defence (73 vs 27), Poisson (73 vs 27), head-to-head (80 vs 20), goals (80 vs 20) and total (74.3 vs 25.7), so the away side is not favoured in any category. ESMTK's underlying record supports this: across eight matches they have four wins, three draws and one loss, remain unbeaten at home with three wins and a draw, and have never failed to score, while Dabas have three wins, one draw and four losses with no clean sheets and two scoreless outings. The goals analysis reinforces the same direction, as ESMTK average 2.10 goals for and only 1.10 against, whereas Dabas average 1.50 for and 2.30 against, and Dabas have conceded in every match, including a 5-0 loss and a 1-4 home defeat. Recent form sharpens the contrast: ESMTK's last five read W, D, W, D, W with a 7-1 win at Lebeny SE and two 3-0 home wins, while Dabas' last five are L, L, L, L, D, including a 0-1 home loss and a 0-5 away defeat. The head-to-head record is more mixed than the 80-20 split suggests, since ESMTK have won four of the last ten meetings but Dabas won three of the most recent five, including a 2-1 away win in March 2026 and a 1-0 win at ESMTK in August 2025. That recent head-to-head resistance from Dabas is the main qualifier to the advice, though it is partly offset by ESMTK's current unbeaten home record and Dabas' four-match losing run. The probabilities themselves are unusual in assigning no chance at all to a Dabas win, which looks like an extreme reading given that Dabas have won three of the last five head-to-heads and drew their most recent away match 2-2. Overall, the evidence points toward ESMTK avoiding defeat rather than a certain win, with the draw component of the double chance carrying real weight because of Dabas' recent head-to-head record and ESMTK's three draws in eight league games.

Predicted winner

ESMTK

Betting advice

Double chance : ESMTK or draw

Home win probability

50%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

0%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Dabas 1–2 ESMTK (01 Mar 2026)
2. ESMTK 0–1 Dabas (10 Aug 2025)
3. Dabas 0–3 ESMTK (13 Apr 2025)
4. ESMTK 1–0 Dabas (29 Sep 2024)
5. Dabas 0–2 ESMTK (04 Aug 2024)