Épila vs La Almunia Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward an Épila win or draw, with home and draw each at 45% against only 10% for La Almunia, and that double-chance advice is best supported by the defensive and form splits rather than by any attacking separation. Épila’s form score of 64 versus 36 and defence score of 83 versus 17 are the strongest comparative edges, reinforced by a three-match sequence of W-D-W in which Épila kept two clean sheets and conceded just once. La Almunia’s D-L-W start is more volatile, and although both attacks are rated identically at 50, the goals data show Épila scoring all four of its goals away from home while La Almunia scored all four at home, so neither side has yet produced its output in this fixture’s venue context. The Poisson values are both 0.00, which offers no independent signal and means the probabilities rest mainly on form, defence, and the goal distributions. Épila’s goals analysis is notably tight, with 4 scored and only 1 conceded across three games, whereas La Almunia has scored 4 but conceded 5, including three goals in the 76-90 window, suggesting late-game vulnerability that could matter if the match stays close. The head-to-head record complicates the picture: La Almunia leads the h2h comparison 60 to 40 and has won three of the last six meetings, including a 1-0 home win over Épila in May 2026, so the recent direct evidence does not fully align with the model’s favouring of Épila. That said, Épila won the corresponding January 2026 meeting 1-0 at home, and the last-five lists show Épila’s current three-match unbeaten run is more relevant than older results, while La Almunia’s last five include two wins, two losses, and a draw. The goals totals lean slightly toward La Almunia at 57 to 43, but the overall total comparison still favours Épila at 56 to 44, which helps explain why the model stops short of a clear home win and instead prices the draw equally at 45%. With only three league matches played by each side, these splits are small-sample indicators, so the double chance looks reasonable but not strongly separated from the possibility of a narrow La Almunia result.

Predicted winner

Épila

Betting advice

Double chance : Épila or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. La Almunia 0–1 Épila (03 May 2026)
2. Épila 1–0 La Almunia (04 Jan 2026)
3. La Almunia 2–1 Épila (25 Jan 2025)
4. Épila 0–1 La Almunia (15 Sep 2024)
5. Épila 0–1 La Almunia (12 Mar 2023)