Colombia · Primera B

Envigado vs Orsomarso Prediction

· Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Envigado badgeEnvigado vs Orsomarso badgeOrsomarso

Match prediction

  • Envigado's superior attack, defence, form and Poisson ratings justify favouring them, though the 45-45 split with draw shows the model sees little separating win from stalemate.
  • Orsomarso's away record of two wins and six draws in eleven suggests resilience on the road, supporting the double-chance cover rather than a straight home win.
  • Envigado's 32-match goals data shows no game exceeding 3.5 goals, directly underpinning the -3.5 goals component of the advice.
  • Orsomarso's 23-match goals data also shows no match exceeding 3.5 goals, reinforcing the low-scoring expectation despite their recent 3-4 defeat.
  • Envigado's home defensive record of eight goals conceded across fifteen games, with nine home clean sheets, strengthens the under 3.5 goals case.
  • The head-to-head record favours Envigado with three away wins in four meetings, though the lone home fixture was won by the home side.
Predicted winner
Envigado
Betting advice
Combo Double chance : Envigado or draw and -3.5 goals
Home win probability
45%
Draw probability
45%
Away win probability
10%
Goals market
-3.5

Prediction comparison

FactorEnvigadoOrsomarso
Form60.0%40.0%
Attack75.0%25.0%
Defence56.0%44.0%
Poisson75.0%25.0%
H2h100.0%0.0%
Goals100.0%0.0%
Total66.5%33.5%

Team form and goal analysis

Envigado

Recent form: WWDLLWWWDLWWLWWLWDDWWWDWDLLLDDDW.

Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.

Orsomarso

Recent form: WLWDDLLLDWWDLLDWDDWLLLD.

Average goals scored: 0.70 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Orsomarso 0–1 Envigado (01 Mar 2026)
  2. Orsomarso 0–1 Envigado (30 May 2025)
  3. Orsomarso 0–1 Envigado (20 Mar 2024)
  4. Envigado 1–0 Orsomarso (05 Mar 2024)
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