Envigado vs Depor FC Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Envigado via a double chance combined with under 3.5 goals, though its 35% home win, 35% draw and 30% away split shows how little separates the sides. That narrow edge is contradicted by the comparison metrics, where Depor FC dominate form (80 versus 20) and attack (73 versus 27), while Envigado counter with stronger defence (44 versus 56), Poisson (64 versus 36), head-to-head (67 versus 33) and goals (57 versus 43) scores. The overall totals are nearly level at 46.5 to 53.5, which reinforces that this is a marginal rather than decisive matchup. Envigado's season record of 14 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses across 31 games, with 13 clean sheets and only 6 failures to score, suggests a resilient side whose low 1.30 goals-per-game average supports the cautious under 3.5 element of the advice. Depor FC's 5 wins, 8 draws and 11 losses in 24 matches, with just 4 clean sheets and 7 scoreless outings, point to a weaker but not harmless team that has nonetheless found form. That form is visible in the last five: Depor FC won four straight before a 0-3 home loss to Tigres FC, while Envigado drew three and lost two without scoring in three of those games, so the recent samples pull in opposite directions. The goals analysis reconciles this tension, as Envigado have gone under 3.5 in all 31 matches and Depor FC in all 24, making the low-scoring expectation the most consistently supported part of the prediction. Head-to-head offers only three meetings, with Envigado winning the 2026 league fixture 2-1 away and both 2023 Copa Colombia games ending 2-0 to the home side, a small and mixed sample that still tilts toward Envigado. Overall, the defensive solidity, Poisson and head-to-head evidence give the Envigado-or-draw advice some backing, but Depor FC's superior form and attack mean the 35% home probability should be treated as fragile rather than comfortable.

Predicted winner

Envigado

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Envigado or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Depor FC 1–2 Envigado (07 Apr 2026)
2. Envigado 2–0 Depor FC (22 Feb 2023)
3. Depor FC 2–0 Envigado (15 Feb 2023)