Spain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
Elche II vs Ucam Murcia Prediction
Match prediction
- Ucam Murcia's superior form and attack ratings, plus a perfect head-to-head record, justify favoring them despite Elche II's home advantage.
- Elche II's low-scoring profile, with two goals in four games and no failed-to-score home record, supports the under 3.5 goals component.
- The draw probability matching Ucam Murcia's win probability at 45% explains why the advice covers both outcomes rather than a straight away win.
- Elche II's defensive solidity at home, one clean sheet and zero goals conceded, tempers Ucam Murcia's attacking edge and reinforces the cautious double chance.
- Ucam Murcia's away scoring average of 2.5 goals per game conflicts with the under 3.5 goals advice, though their recent losses show inconsistency.
- The head-to-head sample is a single 2024 friendly, so it strengthens the away case only weakly and should not be over-weighted.
- Predicted winner
- Ucam Murcia
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : draw or Ucam Murcia and -3.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- -3.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Elche II | Ucam Murcia |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Attack | 22.0% | 78.0% |
| Defence | 63.0% | 38.0% |
| Poisson | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| H2h | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Goals | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Total | 41.7% | 58.7% |
Team form and goal analysis
Elche II
Recent form: DLWL.
Average goals scored: 0.50 per match.
Ucam Murcia
Recent form: LWWL.
Average goals scored: 1.80 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Ucam Murcia 1–0 Elche II (03 Aug 2024)