Eibar vs Las Palmas Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Eibar a 45% home win probability and the draw another 45%, leaving Las Palmas at just 10%, which frames the double-chance advice as a cautious lean toward the hosts rather than a confident outright win. That caution is echoed by the comparison metrics, where Eibar's form (68 vs 32), attack (65 vs 35), defence (88 vs 13) and Poisson (58 vs 42) all favour the home side, yet the head-to-head split (38 vs 62) and goals comparison (47 vs 53) pull in the opposite direction. The defensive gap is the most striking single metric, and Eibar's goals analysis supports it: they have conceded only four goals in six games at 0.70 per match, including four clean sheets, while Las Palmas have shipped eight at 1.30 per match. Eibar's last five reads as five straight wins with just one goal conceded across them, whereas Las Palmas have mixed two wins with a draw and two defeats, including a 5-2 loss at Girona that explains their poor defensive score. Las Palmas do retain some attacking threat, averaging 1.30 goals per game and scoring in five of six matches, so the 10% away probability may understate their capacity to trouble a side that has already lost once at home. The head-to-head record is genuinely conflicting, with Las Palmas winning four of the last ten meetings and the most recent Ipurua league fixture ending 3-1 to Eibar, so recent venue form and longer history point in different directions. Both teams' goal distributions suggest a low-scoring contest, as Eibar have gone under 2.5 goals in four of six matches and Las Palmas in all six, which is consistent with the draw carrying equal weight to an Eibar win. The main qualification is sample size: six league games and five-match form runs are short, and the 45-45 split between home win and draw means the model itself sees little separation between those two outcomes. Overall, the evidence supports the double-chance advice mainly through Eibar's defensive solidity and current winning run, while the head-to-head and Las Palmas's scoring record keep the draw plausible and make an away win unlikely but not negligible.

Predicted winner

Eibar

Betting advice

Double chance : Eibar or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Eibar 3–1 Las Palmas (29 Mar 2026)
2. Las Palmas 3–1 Eibar (19 Oct 2025)
3. Eibar 0–1 Las Palmas (08 May 2023)
4. Las Palmas 1–1 Eibar (06 Nov 2022)
5. Eibar 2–2 Las Palmas (15 Apr 2022)