Kansallinen Liiga · Finland
EBK W vs JyPK W Prediction
Match prediction
The existing model leans toward EBK W as a combo winner with over 1.5 goals, but its 45% home probability is matched by a 45% draw probability, so the edge is far from decisive. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where EBK W dominate form (86 vs 14), attack (70 vs 30), defence (73 vs 27) and Poisson (86 vs 14), yet head-to-head and goals both sit at an even 50-50, and the overall total of 69.20 to 30.80 shows the aggregate still favours the home side. EBK W's six-match record of one win, three draws and two losses, with no clean sheets and only seven goals scored, suggests a team that competes without dominating, which helps explain why the draw probability is unusually high for a fixture with such a lopsided form gap. JyPK W's six-match record of zero wins, one draw and five losses, including a 1-6 home defeat and a 6-0 away loss, points to a side that is consistently overrun rather than merely unlucky. The goals analysis sharpens that contrast: EBK W concede 1.30 per game while JyPK W concede 4.20, and JyPK W have shipped two or more goals in five of six matches, which supports the over 1.5 goals component of the advice even if the winner element remains uncertain. The last-five records tell a similar story, with EBK W drawing three of five and losing once, while JyPK W lost four of five, conceding six goals twice, so recent form broadly aligns with the model's lean toward the home team. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight, consisting of a single 1-1 draw in August 2026, which is too small a sample to establish any pattern and is consistent with the even 50-50 head-to-head and goals splits. Overall, the evidence supports the over 1.5 goals element more strongly than the EBK W winner, since the home side's modest scoring output and the high draw probability qualify what otherwise looks like a clear form and defensive mismatch.
- Predicted winner
- EBK W
- Betting advice
- Combo Winner : EBK W and +1.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- +1.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | EBK W | JyPK W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 86.0% | 14.0% |
| Attack | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| Defence | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| Poisson | 86.0% | 14.0% |
| H2h | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Goals | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Total | 69.2% | 30.8% |
Team form and goal analysis
EBK W
Recent form: LDWDLD.
Average goals scored: 1.20 per match.
JyPK W
Recent form: LDLLLL.
Average goals scored: 0.70 per match.
Head-to-head record
- JyPK W 1–1 EBK W (16 Aug 2026)


