DVS 33 Ermelo vs Sportlust '46 Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Sportlust '46 with a "win or draw" double chance, assigning 45% to both the draw and an away win while leaving DVS 33 Ermelo at just 10%, a split that reflects how little separates the two most likely outcomes. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Sportlust '46 leads on form (69 vs 31), attack (58 vs 42), defence (63 vs 38), Poisson (73 vs 27), head-to-head (62 vs 38), goals (61 vs 39) and overall total (64.30 vs 35.80), so the away side is favoured across every dimension rather than on a single outlier. The team analysis supports that edge: Sportlust '46 are unbeaten in six with three wins and three draws (DDWDWW), while DVS 33 Ermelo have one win, two draws and three losses (LLDLDW), and the hosts have kept no clean sheets at all. Sportlust '46 also carry the stronger goal profile, averaging 2.30 scored and 1.50 conceded against DVS 33 Ermelo's 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded, although the hosts' away scoring rate of 2.00 per game hints they are not harmless on the road. The last-five records add nuance, since DVS 33 Ermelo mixed two wins with a 4-4 draw and a 0-4 loss, while Sportlust '46 won three, drew one and lost 0-2 to Excelsior Maassluis, showing both sides are capable of volatile results. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight to the away lean, as DVS 33 Ermelo won the most recent meeting 2-1 in April 2026 and three of the last eight completed fixtures ended level, including 2-2 and 1-1 scorelines. Those draws help explain why the model splits the draw and away win evenly rather than backing Sportlust '46 outright, and why the advice is framed as a double chance instead of a single winner. The evidence therefore points to Sportlust '46 as the more consistent side over this small six-game sample, but the recent head-to-head win for DVS 33 Ermelo and the frequency of drawn meetings keep the prediction appropriately hedged.

Predicted winner

Sportlust '46

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Sportlust '46

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. DVS 33 Ermelo 2–1 Sportlust '46 (25 Apr 2026)
2. Sportlust '46 2–2 DVS 33 Ermelo (22 Nov 2025)
3. DVS 33 Ermelo 1–4 Sportlust '46 (22 Feb 2025)
4. Sportlust '46 2–2 DVS 33 Ermelo (28 Sep 2024)
5. Sportlust '46 2–0 DVS 33 Ermelo (28 Jan 2023)