England · Women's Championship
Durham W vs Newcastle United W Prediction
· Maiden Castle
Match prediction
- Newcastle's perfect form and three clean sheets in four contrast sharply with Durham's four straight defeats, supporting the away side as the stronger pick.
- Durham's defence concedes 3.3 goals per game while Newcastle scores 2.8, a mismatch that explains the low 10% home win probability.
- The model splits Newcastle and the draw evenly at 45% each, so the double chance advice sensibly covers both plausible outcomes.
- Durham's head-to-head edge is misleading because it rests on older meetings, while Newcastle won the most recent encounter away.
- Durham scores in every match but rarely more than once, suggesting they can trouble the scoreline without threatening to win outright.
- Newcastle's sole loss in five came against Durham, a caution that justifies hedging with the draw rather than backing the away win alone.
- Predicted winner
- Newcastle United W
- Betting advice
- Double chance : draw or Newcastle United W
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Durham W | Newcastle United W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Attack | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| Defence | 7.0% | 93.0% |
| Poisson | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| H2h | 91.0% | 9.0% |
| Goals | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Total | 51.0% | 49.0% |
Team form and goal analysis
Durham W
Recent form: LLLL.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Newcastle United W
Recent form: WWWW.
Average goals scored: 2.80 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Newcastle United W 0–1 Durham W (02 May 2026)
- Durham W 1–1 Newcastle United W (09 Nov 2025)
- Durham W 3–1 Newcastle United W (16 Mar 2025)
- Newcastle United W 0–1 Durham W (06 Oct 2024)