Duque de Caxias vs Niteroiense Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model favours Duque de Caxias via a double-chance advice of “Duque de Caxias or draw,” with probabilities of 45% home, 45% draw and only 10% away, so the recommendation rests on the combined 90% covering the home side and a stalemate. That split is notable because the draw carries the same weight as a home win, which suggests the model sees the two teams as closely matched despite the uneven comparison metrics. Duque de Caxias lead the form comparison 56 to 44 and the attack comparison 67 to 33, and the Poisson split is maximally one-sided at 100 to 0, yet defence is level at 50-50 and head-to-head is also level at 50-50, so the edge is concentrated in form and attack rather than in defensive or historical superiority. The goals comparison is empty for both sides at 0-0, meaning the model’s totals of 55.80 for Duque de Caxias and 44.30 for Niteroiense are not corroborated by that particular section. Duque de Caxias arrive with a three-match winning run (WWW) across three fixtures, scoring eight goals at 2.70 per game while conceding just once, including a 3-0 home win and a 4-1 away win, and they have kept two clean sheets without failing to score. Niteroiense are also unbeaten in three (WDW) but with a lower scoring rate of 1.30 per game, four goals for and one against, and their two clean sheets both came at home, which qualifies their defensive record since their away outing produced a 1-1 draw. The last-five records add a cautionary note: Duque de Caxias’s three recent wins are preceded by two defeats to Olaria (0-4 away, 0-2 home), while Niteroiense’s sequence includes a 5-1 home win over Paduano and a 0-0 home draw against Duque de Caxias in November 2025. That head-to-head record is the only meeting available and it ended level, which is consistent with the 50-50 head-to-head comparison and helps explain why the draw is priced as high as the home win. Overall, the evidence supports the double-chance advice through Duque de Caxias’s stronger form, attack and perfect Poisson score, but the level defence and head-to-head metrics, the empty goals comparison and Niteroiense’s own unbeaten run mean the 45% draw probability should be treated as a genuine possibility rather than a formality.

Predicted winner

Duque de Caxias

Betting advice

Double chance : Duque de Caxias or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Niteroiense 0–0 Duque de Caxias (05 Nov 2025)