Derio vs Beasain Prediction

Match prediction

• Derio's unbeaten four-match start and superior form, attack, and defence ratings support the double-chance advice, though the model splits home and draw evenly at 45 percent each.
• Beasain's away record without a win or goal, plus two away blanks, weakens their chances and reinforces the draw as the likelier half of the double chance.
• The head-to-head record favours Beasain strongly, a conflicting signal that justifies the cautious double chance rather than a straight Derio win.
• Both teams' goal data show every match staying under 2.5 goals, supporting the -3.5 goals component of the advice.
• Derio's perfect home clean-sheet record and Beasain's away scoring drought point to a low-scoring contest consistent with the under selection.
• The Poisson split of 100 to 0 in Derio's favour contrasts with the modest 45 percent win probability, suggesting the model tempers dominance with draw risk.

Predicted winner

Derio

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Derio or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Beasain 2–0 Derio (16 Apr 2025)
2. Derio 1–4 Beasain (06 Dec 2024)
3. Derio 0–0 Beasain (02 Mar 2024)
4. Beasain 1–0 Derio (12 Oct 2023)