Deportivo Maipu vs Temperley Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Deportivo Maipu a 35% win probability and Temperley 30%, with a 35% draw, so the advice of a Deportivo Maipu-or-draw double chance combined with under 3.5 goals rests on a narrow edge rather than a clear favourite. That narrowness is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Temperley leads form 68 to 32 and attack 69 to 31, while Deportivo Maipu's advantages come from defence (43 to 57), head-to-head (80 to 20) and goals (80 to 20), leaving the Poisson estimate almost level at 49 to 51. The season records explain part of this tension: Deportivo Maipu have 11 wins, 8 draws and 11 losses across 30 games with a strong home split of 8 wins and only 3 defeats, whereas Temperley have 14 wins, 11 draws and just 5 losses, though 8 of their 11 draws came away. Deportivo Maipu's goals profile is built on defence, conceding 0.70 at home and 1.00 overall, with 9 clean sheets and 28 of 30 matches staying under 3.5 goals, which directly supports the under component of the advice. Temperley's numbers are more lopsided, scoring 1.90 at home but only 0.50 away, and conceding 0.50 away against 1.10 at home, so their attacking threat may be muted on this trip even though their overall defensive record of 0.80 conceded is the better of the two. The last-five records qualify the form gap: Deportivo Maipu have three draws, a loss and a win with only three goals scored, while Temperley have four wins and a draw, scoring nine and conceding three, suggesting Temperley arrive in clearly better recent shape. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight, since Deportivo Maipu won 5-0 away in May 2026 and also won the 2023 and 2022 home meetings, yet Temperley have won three of the seven listed encounters, including a 4-0 Copa Argentina result, so the 80-to-20 split may overstate a small and volatile sample. Overall, the evidence points to a low-scoring, finely balanced fixture in which Deportivo Maipu's home solidity and head-to-head edge support the double chance, while Temperley's superior form, defence and recent results make that position far from secure.

Predicted winner

Deportivo Maipu

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Deportivo Maipu or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Temperley 0–5 Deportivo Maipu (09 May 2026)
2. Deportivo Maipu 2–0 Temperley (12 Nov 2023)
3. Temperley 2–1 Deportivo Maipu (05 Nov 2023)
4. Deportivo Maipu 2–1 Temperley (13 Aug 2022)
5. Temperley 0–2 Deportivo Maipu (31 Jul 2021)