Deportivo Alavés III vs Touring Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Deportivo Alavés III with a double-chance call of win or draw, expressed as 45% home, 45% draw and only 10% away, so the advice is essentially a bet against a Touring victory rather than a strong home endorsement. That caution is echoed by the comparison metrics, where form is dead level at 50.00 for both sides, while the sharper separation comes from attack (63.00 versus 38.00), defence (40.00 versus 60.00), goals (67.00 versus 33.00) and total (61.00 versus 39.20), all pointing the same direction. The Poisson split of 100.00 to 0.00 is the most extreme input and should be treated as a model artefact rather than independent proof, since it is far more decisive than the 45-45-10 probabilities it sits alongside. The head-to-head record is the clearest historical counterweight, with Touring winning three of the six meetings, Alavés III winning once and two ending level, including a 1-2 Touring win in April 2026 and a 0-0 draw in December 2025. Recent form is genuinely mixed for both: Alavés III's last five read L-W-D-W-L, featuring a 3-0 home win over Amurrio and a 6-1 away win at Real Aranjuez but also a 1-2 home loss to Portugalete, while Touring's W-D-L-L-W includes a 2-0 home win over Beasain and a 3-2 away win at Leioa. The team analysis over three league games shows Alavés III on D-W-L with one home win, one away draw and one away defeat, and Touring on L-D-W with one home win, one away draw and one home loss, so neither has a settled three-match pattern. Goals analysis adds a further qualification: Alavés III have scored five and conceded three, averaging 1.70 for and 1.00 against, with a 3-0 home clean sheet but no away clean sheet, whereas Touring have scored three and conceded two, averaging 1.00 for and 0.70 against, and failed to score in one home match. The totals also suggest low-scoring contests, since Alavés III have gone under 2.5 goals in two of three and Touring in all three, which tempers any expectation of a comfortable home margin. Overall, the double chance looks reasonably supported by the attacking, defensive and goals indicators, but the even form, Touring's superior head-to-head record and the small three-game samples mean the draw component carries much of the value and the away side cannot be dismissed.

Predicted winner

Deportivo Alavés III

Betting advice

Double chance : Deportivo Alavés III or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Touring 1–2 Deportivo Alavés III (16 Apr 2026)
2. Deportivo Alavés III 0–0 Touring (13 Dec 2025)
3. Touring 0–1 Deportivo Alavés III (22 Feb 2025)
4. Deportivo Alavés III 2–2 Touring (13 Oct 2024)
5. Touring 0–1 Deportivo Alavés III (10 Feb 2024)