Deportiva Venados vs Celaya Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a double chance on Deportiva Venados or draw, with home and draw each at 45% and Celaya at just 10%, so the advice is essentially a hedge against the away side rather than a confident home win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Celaya lead on form (67 vs 33), attack (57 vs 43) and defence (67 vs 33), yet Deportiva Venados dominate the head-to-head (80 vs 20) and goals (60 vs 40) splits, while the Poisson and total columns are nearly level at 100–0 and 49.8–50.2 respectively. The team analysis explains part of this tension: Deportiva Venados are unbeaten in three matches (DWD, one win, two draws) with a 2-0 home win over Jaguares de Chiapas and no failures to score, whereas Celaya are also unbeaten but stronger over four games (WWDW, three wins, one draw) with two clean sheets. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast, as Deportiva Venados average 2.00 scored but concede 2.00 away from home, including a 3-3 draw at Racing de Veracruz, while Celaya average 2.00 scored and only 0.50 conceded, reflecting a more controlled profile. Celaya's goal timing is notably late-weighted, with 50% of their goals in the 76-90 window and further strikes in the 46-60, 61-75 and 91-105 bands, suggesting they finish matches strongly rather than dominate early. Deportiva Venados spread their six goals across the 16-30, 31-45 and 76-90 windows, and their only recorded concession came in the 91-105 range, so their matches have tended to stay within three goals (no over 3.5 occurrences). The last-five records reinforce the small-sample caveat: Deportiva Venados have two wins, three draws and no defeats across a set that includes older May fixtures, while Celaya's run is four wins and one loss, with the defeat a 1-2 away result at Cimarrones back in April. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight to Celaya's form, showing a 1-1 draw at this same Estadio Alonso Diego Molina in February 2026 and a 2-1 Deportiva Venados win at Celaya in September 2025, so the venue has not recently favoured the visitors. Overall, the evidence supports the existing double-chance advice as a way of respecting Deportiva Venados' head-to-head edge and unbeaten run while acknowledging that Celaya's superior form, defence and late-goal threat make a straightforward home win far from certain.

Predicted winner

Deportiva Venados

Betting advice

Double chance : Deportiva Venados or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Deportiva Venados 1–1 Celaya (07 Feb 2026)
2. Celaya 1–2 Deportiva Venados (21 Sep 2025)