Deportes Tolima vs Chico Prediction
· Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Match prediction
- The model's 45% home and 45% draw probabilities justify double chance rather than a straight win, since neither outcome clearly dominates.
- Chico's stronger recent form and attack ratings conflict with Tolima's overwhelming Poisson and head-to-head edges, explaining why the draw probability matches the home win.
- Tolima's solid home record of eleven wins in eighteen, against Chico's zero away wins all season, supports the home side avoiding defeat.
- Chico's away scoring average of 0.30 and twelve away failures to score make an away victory unlikely, reinforcing the double chance advice.
- Tolima's home goals-against average of 0.80 and six home clean sheets suggest a low-scoring match where the draw remains a genuine threat.
- Head-to-head results show Tolima unbeaten at home against Chico recently, though two drawn meetings indicate the draw leg carries real value.
- Predicted winner
- Deportes Tolima
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Deportes Tolima or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Deportes Tolima | Chico |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| Attack | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Defence | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Poisson | 93.0% | 7.0% |
| H2h | 85.0% | 15.0% |
| Goals | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Total | 62.8% | 37.2% |
Team form and goal analysis
Deportes Tolima
Recent form: WWDDLDWLWDWDWWDLWLDWWLLWWLWDWWLLDD.
Average goals scored: 1.40 per match.
Chico
Recent form: LLDLLWLLLWLDLWLWLLWLLLDDWWLLW.
Average goals scored: 0.90 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Chico 1–1 Deportes Tolima (23 Mar 2026)
- Deportes Tolima 4–0 Chico (15 Sep 2025)
- Chico 1–4 Deportes Tolima (02 Apr 2025)
- Deportes Tolima 2–1 Chico (16 Sep 2024)
- Chico 1–1 Deportes Tolima (02 Mar 2024)