Deportes Santa Cruz vs San Marcos de Arica Prediction
Match prediction
- The model's near-even split between home win and draw supports double chance rather than a straight home victory.
- Santa Cruz's attack ranks far below Arica's, yet its superior defence and head-to-head record offset that weakness.
- Arica's stronger Poisson and attacking metrics conflict with Santa Cruz's home advantage and historical edge in this fixture.
- Both teams share identical recent form, so the draw component of the advice carries meaningful weight.
- Santa Cruz's many home draws and few home wins reinforce covering the draw alongside the home side.
- Low-scoring tendencies in both teams' goal data make a narrow, draw-prone match consistent with the double chance.
- Predicted winner
- Deportes Santa Cruz
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Deportes Santa Cruz or draw
- Home win probability
- 35%
- Draw probability
- 35%
- Away win probability
- 30%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Deportes Santa Cruz | San Marcos de Arica |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Attack | 22.0% | 78.0% |
| Defence | 78.0% | 22.0% |
| Poisson | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| H2h | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Goals | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Total | 52.0% | 48.0% |
Team form and goal analysis
Deportes Santa Cruz
Recent form: DDLLWLDLLDLLDDWLLDWLLDDWD.
Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.
San Marcos de Arica
Recent form: DDDDDWWWWWDDWLLWDDLLLLWLW.
Average goals scored: 1.20 per match.
Head-to-head record
- San Marcos de Arica 1–1 Deportes Santa Cruz (21 Feb 2026)
- Deportes Santa Cruz 1–0 San Marcos de Arica (25 Oct 2025)
- San Marcos de Arica 2–1 Deportes Santa Cruz (15 Jun 2025)
- Deportes Santa Cruz 1–0 San Marcos de Arica (10 Aug 2024)
- San Marcos de Arica 3–4 Deportes Santa Cruz (01 Apr 2024)