Denmark vs Wales Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output favours Denmark as the winner, yet its 45% home probability is matched by a 45% draw probability and only 10% for Wales, so the advice rests on a narrow edge rather than a clear separation. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where form is level at 0.00 for both sides and the Poisson values are also 0.00, meaning two of the aggregate indicators offer no discrimination at all. Where the comparison does separate the teams, it is emphatic: attack reads 100.00 for Denmark against 0.00 for Wales, defence 25.00 against 75.00, head-to-head 100.00 against 0.00, goals 89.00 against 11.00, and total 57.00 against 43.00, all pointing the same direction. The team analysis nonetheless shows both teams arriving on an identical "L" form line from a single match each, so the sample is too small to treat as a trend. Denmark's lone outing produced two goals scored and three conceded in a 3-2 loss, while Wales scored none and conceded one in a 1-0 defeat, which is consistent with the attacking gap in the comparison but also shows Denmark's defensive vulnerability. The goals analysis sharpens this: Denmark average 2.00 goals for and 3.00 against, with their two goals split evenly between the 16-30 and 46-60 windows and their three concessions spread across the 0-15, 16-30 and 61-75 periods, whereas Wales average 0.00 for and 1.00 against and failed to score in their only match. The last-five records add a broader but conflicting layer, since Denmark's sequence of a loss, two wins and two draws includes a 4-0 win over FYR Macedonia and a 2-1 win over Ukraine, while Wales have lost their last two and drawn their previous three, a run of five without a win that supports the away probability being so low. The head-to-head record is the strongest historical support for the advice, with Denmark winning all three listed meetings, including a 4-0 away win in 2021 and a 2-1 away win in 2018, though the most recent of those is several years old and the 2018 home fixture went Denmark's way 2-0. Overall, the evidence coheres around a Denmark edge through the comparison metrics and head-to-head, but the level form and Poisson values, Denmark's leaky single-match defence, and the equal 45% home and draw probabilities mean the prediction should be read as a modest lean rather than a confident outcome.

Predicted winner

Denmark

Betting advice

Winner : Denmark

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Wales 0–4 Denmark (26 Jun 2021)
2. Wales 1–2 Denmark (16 Nov 2018)
3. Denmark 2–0 Wales (09 Sep 2018)