Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% home and 45% draw probabilities justify the double-chance advice, with San Lorenzo's 10% away win probability reflecting their weak two-win away record.
• Defensa's superior form, attack, head-to-head and goals metrics support the home side, though identical 50% defence scores show neither team holds a clear defensive edge.
• San Lorenzo's 13 clean sheets and 0.70 goals-per-game average suggest a low-scoring contest, reinforcing the -3.5 goals component of the advice.
• Defensa's goals distribution shows 25 of 26 matches under 3.5, while San Lorenzo stayed under 3.5 in all 27, strongly supporting the goals line.
• San Lorenzo's 11 failed-to-score matches and 0.50 away scoring average weaken their upset chances, though their 13 clean sheets keep a draw plausible.
• Recent form favours Defensa with three wins in five, while San Lorenzo's two losses and two draws in five support the double-chance selection.

Predicted winner

Defensa Y Justicia

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Defensa Y Justicia or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. San Lorenzo 2–5 Defensa Y Justicia (16 Mar 2026)
2. Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 San Lorenzo (22 Sep 2024)
3. San Lorenzo 0–2 Defensa Y Justicia (08 Apr 2024)
4. Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 San Lorenzo (24 Nov 2023)
5. Defensa Y Justicia 0–1 San Lorenzo (12 Nov 2023)