De Treffers vs Spakenburg Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a double chance on De Treffers or draw, with probabilities of 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away, so the advice reflects a marginal rather than decisive edge. That narrow margin is consistent with the comparison metrics, where De Treffers lead on form (56 versus 44), attack (53 versus 47), defence (55 versus 45) and goals (60 versus 40), yet Spakenburg dominate the Poisson measure 59 to 41 and the head-to-head split is perfectly even at 50-50. De Treffers' unbeaten six-match record of three wins and three draws, including a 5-1 home win and a 0-3 away win, supports the draw-inclusive advice, while Spakenburg's WLWLWD sequence of three wins, one draw and two defeats shows a more volatile profile that could undercut the favourite's security. Both teams have scored in every match this season, and De Treffers' 14 goals at 2.30 per game against 1.00 conceded contrast with Spakenburg's 9 goals at 1.50 per game, though Spakenburg's defensive away record of 0.70 conceded per game is stronger than their home figure of 1.30. The goal-timing data adds a late-game dimension: De Treffers score 42.86% of their goals in the 76-90 window and concede 50% there, while Spakenburg's goals are spread more evenly, which suggests the closing stages could be influential. The last-five records reinforce the contrast, with De Treffers taking two wins and three draws from Katwijk, Koninklijke HFC, HHC, Rijnsburgse Boys and ROHDA Raalte, whereas Spakenburg mixed two wins, two draws and a 1-3 home loss to Barendrecht. The head-to-head record is the most conflicting evidence, as Spakenburg won four of the last ten meetings, including a 0-5 away win at Sportpark Zuid and a 1-3 win there, while De Treffers won three and two ended level, so recent history does not clearly favour the home side. Overall, the statistical edge and unbeaten form justify the draw-inclusive advice, but the even head-to-head and Spakenburg's superior Poisson rating mean the prediction should be treated as a modest lean rather than a confident outcome.

Predicted winner

De Treffers

Betting advice

Double chance : De Treffers or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. De Treffers 0–0 Spakenburg (09 May 2026)
2. Spakenburg 0–5 De Treffers (29 Nov 2025)
3. Spakenburg 1–3 De Treffers (22 Mar 2025)
4. De Treffers 0–2 Spakenburg (19 Oct 2024)
5. De Treffers 1–3 Spakenburg (25 May 2024)