De Graafschap vs Den Bosch Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward De Graafschap via a double chance with over 1.5 goals, but its own probabilities are nearly flat at 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away, so the advice rests on a narrow edge rather than a clear favourite. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Den Bosch leads on form (67 versus 33), attack (64 versus 36) and Poisson (56 versus 44), while De Graafschap's only decisive advantages come from goals (67 versus 33) and a lopsided head-to-head score (85 versus 15). The head-to-head record gives that latter figure some substance, since De Graafschap have won three of the last ten meetings and drawn three, including a 1-1 at De Vijverberg in January 2026, though Den Bosch's 4-0 win in December 2023 shows the fixture can swing sharply the other way. Recent form complicates the picture further: De Graafschap's last five read L-W-L-L-L, with a 5-0 loss at Heracles and a 1-4 home defeat to Almere City, while Den Bosch's W-L-L-L-W includes a 5-2 home win over Eindhoven but also a 1-4 loss to Vitesse. Both teams' season records are similarly poor at one win apiece from seven, yet the goal profiles diverge in a way that supports the over 1.5 element, as De Graafschap have scored in six of seven matches and conceded in all seven, and Den Bosch have also scored in six of seven while failing to keep a single clean sheet. De Graafschap's defensive numbers are the weakest single indicator here, with 20 goals conceded at 2.90 per game and 3.70 per home game, and their 11 home goals against came across only three fixtures, which helps explain why the model cannot separate home win from draw. Den Bosch's away form is the counterweight, with no wins and three defeats on the road, only three away goals scored and a 2.70 away concession rate, so their stronger overall form and attack ratings are largely built at home. The goals analysis also shows both sides rarely clearing 2.5 goals in a match, with De Graafschap under 2.5 in all seven and Den Bosch under in six of seven, which keeps the advice anchored at the modest +1.5 threshold rather than a higher line. Overall, the evidence supports a low-confidence lean toward De Graafschap avoiding defeat in a match likely to produce goals, but the flat probabilities, Den Bosch's superior form and attack metrics, and De Graafschap's poor home defence mean the draw is a genuine alternative rather than a remote outcome.

Predicted winner

De Graafschap

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : De Graafschap or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. De Graafschap 1–1 Den Bosch (26 Jan 2026)
2. Den Bosch 1–2 De Graafschap (31 Oct 2025)
3. De Graafschap 1–0 Den Bosch (07 Feb 2025)
4. Den Bosch 2–2 De Graafschap (04 Oct 2024)
5. De Graafschap 2–0 Den Bosch (23 Feb 2024)