Czarni Sosnowiec W vs UJ Krakow W Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Czarni Sosnowiec W a 45% home win probability and the draw the same 45%, leaving UJ Krakow W at just 10%, which is why the advice is a double chance on Czarni Sosnowiec W or draw rather than a straight home win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where the two sides are level on form at 50.00, yet Czarni dominate attack (65.00 vs 35.00), defence (70.00 vs 30.00), Poisson (100.00 vs 0.00), head-to-head (100.00 vs 0.00) and goals (89.00 vs 11.00), producing a total split of 68.50 to 31.50. The team analysis explains part of that edge: Czarni are unbeaten in three league games (two wins, one draw) with two home clean sheets and a 5-0 best home win, while UJ Krakow have two wins, one draw and one loss from four, with no clean sheets and a 1-4 home defeat. Czarni's goals analysis reinforces the defensive case, as they have conceded only three goals in total at 1.00 per game and none at home, whereas UJ Krakow have shipped seven at 1.80 per game and 2.50 per home game. Going forward, Czarni average 3.70 goals per game and have scored in every match, while UJ Krakow average 1.50 and have never exceeded two goals in a game, so the attacking gap is substantial rather than marginal. The last-five records add an important qualification, because Czarni's sequence includes heavy defeats to OH Leuven W (1-2 and 1-4) alongside wins over Breidablik W (6-2) and Legia W (3-0) and a 3-3 draw with GKS Katowice W, showing they are not invulnerable. UJ Krakow's last five are more modest but not disastrous, with a 1-1 draw at Rekord Bielsko-Biala W, a 1-4 home loss to Pogon Szczecin W, and three wins including a 4-0 over Stomilanki Olsztyn W, so their 10% away probability may understate their capacity to score. The head-to-head record is genuinely mixed across four meetings, with Czarni winning 1-0 at home in March 2026 and 2-0 in November 2023, but UJ Krakow winning 3-0 away in August 2025 and 2-1 at home in May 2024, which is why the 100.00 to 0.00 head-to-head comparison should be treated as a narrow recent lean rather than dominance. Overall, the evidence points to Czarni being the stronger side at home and justifies the double chance, but the drawn form scores, Czarni's recent heavy losses and UJ Krakow's away win in this fixture mean the draw component carries real weight and the outcome remains uncertain.

Predicted winner

Czarni Sosnowiec W

Betting advice

Double chance : Czarni Sosnowiec W or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Czarni Sosnowiec W 1–0 UJ Krakow W (21 Mar 2026)
2. UJ Krakow W 0–3 Czarni Sosnowiec W (30 Aug 2025)
3. UJ Krakow W 1–2 Czarni Sosnowiec W (12 May 2024)
4. Czarni Sosnowiec W 2–0 UJ Krakow W (04 Nov 2023)