Croatia Zmijavci vs Sesvete Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw-or-Sesvete double chance, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% for a draw and 45% for an away win, leaving Croatia Zmijavci as only a 10% home winner. That caution is reinforced by the head-to-head record, where Sesvete hold a 62–38 edge and have avoided defeat in the last three meetings, including two 1-1 draws and a 1-0 away win in September 2025. The comparison metrics are more mixed, however, since form favours the home side 54–46 and the Poisson estimate also tilts home at 61–39, which conflicts with the away-leaning probabilities and suggests the model is not treating this as a clear away performance. Attack and defence are dead level at 50–50 for both teams, while the goals comparison swings strongly to Sesvete at 70–30, and the overall totals are nearly balanced at 47.20 home versus 52.80 away. Croatia Zmijavci's six-game form of WWWDLL includes three wins and a three-match winning streak, but their last five show two defeats and a draw, with a 2-3 home loss to Vukovar and a 0-1 away loss at Kustosija. Sesvete's WLLWWL record is more volatile, with no draws in six matches, and their last five also contain three defeats, including home losses to HNK Cibalia and Dugopolje, though they did win 2-0 at home against Segesta Sisak and 2-1 away at Dinamo Zagreb U21. Both teams have scored nine goals and conceded six across their six games, giving each an identical 1.50 goals-for and 1.00 goals-against average, so the attacking and defensive goal profiles do not separate them. The minute breakdowns add a late-game dimension: Croatia Zmijavci have scored 62.50% of their goals in the 76-90 window, while Sesvete have conceded 50% of their goals in the first 15 minutes, which could matter if the match stays close. Sesvete's perfect two-from-two penalty record is a small but potentially decisive detail, whereas Croatia Zmijavci have not taken a penalty, and the absence of any under-over advice means the model is not committing to a goals line. Overall, the draw-or-Sesvete advice is supported by the probabilities and head-to-head edge, but it is qualified by the home side's better form and Poisson score, making the double chance a cautious rather than a confident conclusion.

Predicted winner

Sesvete

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Sesvete

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Sesvete 1–1 Croatia Zmijavci (18 Apr 2026)
2. Sesvete 1–1 Croatia Zmijavci (14 Nov 2025)
3. Croatia Zmijavci 0–1 Sesvete (07 Sep 2025)
4. Sesvete 0–1 Croatia Zmijavci (09 May 2025)
5. Croatia Zmijavci 0–4 Sesvete (10 Nov 2024)