Croatia vs England Prediction
Match prediction
- England's 45% win probability and 45% draw probability together justify the double-chance advice, since Croatia's outright win chance is only 10%.
- England's superior attack, defence, goals, and head-to-head metrics all point one direction, supporting the model's lean toward the away side.
- Identical 50% recent form for both teams slightly tempers England's statistical edge, which is why the draw carries equal probability to an away win.
- Both teams scoring in every recent match, plus Croatia's 2.50 goals-against average, supports the +1.5 goals component of the advice.
- England's 71% head-to-head advantage and 4-2 win in June 2026 reinforce the model's confidence despite Croatia's home status.
- Croatia's heavy 4-1 loss to Spain shows defensive vulnerability, strengthening the case for England avoiding defeat with goals expected.
- Predicted winner
- England
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : draw or England and +1.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- +1.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Croatia | England |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Attack | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Defence | 38.0% | 63.0% |
| Poisson | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| H2h | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Goals | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Total | 39.6% | 60.6% |
Team form and goal analysis
Croatia
Recent form: WL.
Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.
England
Recent form: LW.
Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.
Head-to-head record
- England 4–2 Croatia (17 Jun 2026)
- England 1–0 Croatia (13 Jun 2021)
- England 2–1 Croatia (18 Nov 2018)
- Croatia 0–0 England (12 Oct 2018)
- Croatia 2–1 England (11 Jul 2018)