Criciuma vs Avai Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Criciuma a 45% win probability and the draw another 45%, leaving Avai at just 10%, which is why the advice is a double chance on Criciuma or draw rather than a straight home win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Criciuma's form score of 75.00 dwarfs Avai's 25.00 and the Poisson and head-to-head splits lean heavily home at 64.00 versus 36.00 and 71.00 versus 29.00, yet attack is dead level at 50.00 each and defence only mildly favours Criciuma at 44.00 against 56.00. The season records reinforce the same tension: Criciuma have 13 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses across 29 games with 12 clean sheets, while Avai have lost 15 of 29 and conceded 38 goals, including a 1.60 average per away match. Criciuma's goals analysis shows a modest 1.00 scored and 0.90 conceded per game, with 28 of 29 matches staying under 2.5 goals, so their edge looks more about control than firepower. Avai's goal timing is a counterpoint, since 33.33% of their 30 goals arrive in the 76-90 window, suggesting late threat even if their overall scoring rate is only 1.00 per game. The last-five records complicate the picture further, as Criciuma have lost four of five, including 0-2 at home to Operario-PR and 0-4 away to Atletico Goianiense, while Avai have one draw and four defeats with just three goals scored. The head-to-head record is the strongest single support for the advice, with Criciuma winning the most recent meeting 2-1 away in May 2026 and taking seven of the ten listed encounters, though the 2025 Serie B fixture at this venue went 1-2 to Avai, which is a reminder that the venue has not been decisive. Overall, the probabilities, form, Poisson and head-to-head evidence align behind avoiding an Avai win, but the level attack metric, Criciuma's poor recent run and Avai's late-goal pattern mean the draw share of 45% is doing real work in the double chance rather than serving as a formality.

Predicted winner

Criciuma

Betting advice

Double chance : Criciuma or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Avai 1–2 Criciuma (30 May 2026)
2. Criciuma 2–1 Avai (11 Jan 2026)
3. Avai 1–1 Criciuma (19 Oct 2025)
4. Criciuma 1–2 Avai (28 Jun 2025)
5. Avai 0–3 Criciuma (22 Feb 2025)