Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Spain
Cotillas CD vs Atlético Pulpileño Prediction
Match prediction
The existing model leans toward Cotillas CD in a double-chance combination with under 3.5 goals, though its probabilities are nearly flat at 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away, so the edge is modest rather than decisive. The comparison metrics reinforce that tension: Cotillas holds a clear attack advantage (67 versus 33) while Atlético Pulpileño holds an equally clear defensive advantage (100 versus 0), and the form scores of 44 and 56 favour the visitors slightly. Those two signals pull in opposite directions, which helps explain why the model's safest expression is double chance rather than a straight home win. The goals evidence supports the under 3.5 component, since neither side has seen a match exceed 2.5 goals in the sample, with Cotillas recording three unders and Pulpileño three unders across their fixtures. Cotillas' three-game form of WDL produced four goals for and five against, including a 2-0 loss at Alcantarilla and a 2-2 home draw with Águilas II, so they score but have not kept a clean sheet. Atlético Pulpileño's WDD form is built on defence rather than attack: three clean sheets in three games, zero goals conceded, but only two goals scored, both in a 2-0 home win over Algar. Their last five record extends that pattern with goalless draws against Bullas Deportivo and Alcantarilla, plus older 0-0 and 0-1 results, suggesting a low-scoring profile that could frustrate Cotillas' attacking edge. The head-to-head section is empty, so there is no historical meeting data to confirm or contradict these patterns, and the Poisson, head-to-head and goals comparison columns all read 0.00, meaning those inputs add no differentiation here. Overall, the evidence jointly supports a cautious double chance on Cotillas or the draw combined with a low goal line, but the small three-game samples and the missing head-to-head data mean this should be treated as a tentative read rather than a firm conclusion.
- Predicted winner
- Cotillas CD
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : Cotillas CD or draw and -3.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 35%
- Draw probability
- 35%
- Away win probability
- 30%
- Goals market
- -3.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Cotillas CD | Atlético Pulpileño |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Attack | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| Defence | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Poisson | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| H2h | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Goals | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 55.5% | 44.5% |
Team form and goal analysis
Cotillas CD
Recent form: WDL.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Atlético Pulpileño
Recent form: WDD.
Average goals scored: 0.70 per match.
Head-to-head record
No recorded head-to-head matches are available.


