Coruxo vs Gernika Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Gernika as the winner, yet its own probabilities split evenly at 50% draw and 50% away with 0% for Coruxo, so the advice is better read as a preference within a genuinely uncertain match rather than a strong call. The comparison metrics reinforce that lean, with Gernika ahead on form (64 versus 36), attack (71 versus 29), defence (60 versus 40) and total (65 versus 35), while the Poisson split of 0% home and 100% away is the most extreme input and sits awkwardly beside the draw-heavy probability. That tension is partly explained by the goal data: Gernika have scored 10 goals in three games at 3.30 per match and conceded only twice, whereas Coruxo have four goals at 1.30 per match and have conceded three, giving Gernika a clear edge in both boxes. Gernika's last five show two 4-0 wins over Llanera and Arosa plus a 2-2 draw with Bergantiños, though the two 0-0 draws from late April are older and less relevant to current form. Coruxo's last five are more mixed, with a 2-0 win at Deportivo Alavés II and a 3-1 home win over Pontevedra offset by 2-1 defeats at Portugalete and Lugo and a 1-1 home draw with Racing Santander II. The team analysis adds nuance: Coruxo have one win, one draw and one loss from three league games with no clean sheets, while Gernika are unbeaten in three with two wins, one draw and two clean sheets, including a 4-0 home win and a 0-4 away win. The head-to-head section is empty, so there is no historical record to either support or contradict the model's preference, and the goals-by-minute data is too sparse to draw firm conclusions beyond Gernika's spread of scoring across the match. Overall, the evidence points toward Gernika as the stronger side on current form and output, but the 50% draw probability and Coruxo's ability to score in every game so far mean the prediction should be treated as a lean rather than a certainty.

Predicted winner

Gernika

Betting advice

Winner : Gernika

Home win probability

0%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

50%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.