Cortes vs Pamplona Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Cortes with a "win or draw" double chance and under 3.5 goals, expressed through probabilities of 45% home, 45% draw and only 10% away, so the advice is essentially a bet against a Pamplona victory rather than a strong endorsement of a Cortes win. That caution is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Cortes lead on form (60 versus 40), defence (33 versus 67) and especially the head-to-head (85 versus 15) and goals (86 versus 14) splits, while attack is level at 50 and the Poisson column is an extreme 100 to 0 that should be treated as a modelling artefact rather than a literal certainty. The overall totals of 62.8 for Cortes against 37.2 for Pamplona summarise that edge, but the team analysis shows how thin the underlying samples are, with both sides having played only three league fixtures. Cortes' record of one win, two defeats and a 2-0 home win over Bidezarra is undermined by a 5-0 loss at San Juan, and their away form shows zero goals scored and six conceded, which explains why the model stops short of backing them to win outright. Pamplona are winless with two draws and one defeat, scoring only twice and conceding three, and their last five extend that pattern with three draws and two defeats, including a 1-1 home draw with Doneztebe and a 1-0 loss at Beti Kozkor. The goals analysis reinforces the low-scoring expectation: Cortes average 0.70 goals per game overall with both their goals coming in the 76-90 minute window, while Pamplona also average 0.70 and have never exceeded 1.5 goals in a match, and neither side has kept a clean sheet in this sample except Cortes' single home shutout. The head-to-head record is the most substantial evidence and it is strikingly tight, with four 0-0 draws among ten meetings, Cortes winning three and Pamplona three, and the most recent fixture a goalless draw in May 2026, which supports the draw component of the double chance and the under 3.5 goals selection. Taken together, the evidence points to a low-scoring, closely matched fixture in which Cortes' home advantage and superior defensive and head-to-head numbers justify favouring them not to lose, while the small samples, Pamplona's habit of drawing and the history of stalemates mean the 45% draw probability is at least as plausible as a home win.

Predicted winner

Cortes

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Cortes or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Cortes 0–0 Pamplona (03 May 2026)
2. Pamplona 1–3 Cortes (04 Jan 2026)
3. Cortes 2–0 Pamplona (22 Feb 2025)
4. Pamplona 0–0 Cortes (12 Oct 2024)
5. Cortes 1–0 Pamplona (11 May 2024)