Constància vs Alcúdia Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Constància via a double-chance call, with home and draw each at 45% and Alcúdia's win probability only 10%, so the advice is essentially a bet against an away victory rather than a strong home endorsement. That caution is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Alcúdia actually leads on form (60 versus 40) and attack (67 versus 33), while Constància's edge comes from defence (60 versus 40), goals (70 versus 30) and a lopsided head-to-head split of 71 to 29. The Poisson figure of 100 to 0 is the most extreme input and should be treated as a model artefact rather than independent proof, since it sits awkwardly beside Alcúdia's superior attacking numbers and recent scoring output. Both teams' goal profiles reinforce that tension: Constància have scored four in three games at 1.30 per match but conceded only twice, with a 3-0 home win over Arenal and a clean sheet at home, whereas Alcúdia have scored eight at 2.70 per match yet also conceded three, including a 5-0 home rout of Inter Ibiza and a 1-2 home loss to Santanyí. The last-five records add further qualification, as Constància's sequence of WDL in the current campaign is modest and their two most recent outings produced just one goal scored, while Alcúdia's WWL shows genuine scoring bursts but also a defeat in their latest match. The head-to-head record is the strongest single support for the advice, since Constància have won the last two meetings 5-0 and 5-2 at home and have not lost to Alcúdia in the last four encounters, though Alcúdia's 1-0 and 2-0 home wins in earlier seasons show the fixture is not one-sided. With only three league games played per side, all form and goal averages rest on very small samples, so the 45-45-10 split plausibly reflects uncertainty rather than a clear edge. Overall, the evidence supports the double chance mainly through head-to-head dominance and Constància's defensive solidity, but Alcúdia's stronger form and attack mean the draw component carries much of the protection.

Predicted winner

Constància

Betting advice

Double chance : Constància or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Constància 5–0 Alcúdia (08 Mar 2026)
2. Alcúdia 1–0 Constància (25 Oct 2025)
3. Constància 5–2 Alcúdia (03 May 2025)
4. Alcúdia 1–1 Constància (21 Dec 2024)
5. Constància 3–2 Alcúdia (27 Jan 2024)