Colwyn Bay vs Haverfordwest County AFC Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Colwyn Bay win, but the 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away split shows that this is a marginal call rather than a confident one. The comparison metrics reinforce that tension: Colwyn Bay leads on form (55 vs 45), attack (67 vs 33) and defence (56 vs 44), and the Poisson measure is overwhelmingly in their favour at 94 against 6, yet the head-to-head and goals splits run the other way at 29 versus 71 and 31 versus 69 respectively. That contradiction matters because the overall totals still favour Colwyn Bay only narrowly (55.3 vs 44.7), so the advice rests on a genuine edge in current performance rather than on historical dominance. Colwyn Bay's team analysis supports the form reading, with six wins from ten, a perfect five-from-five home record, four clean sheets and no home blanks, although their away form of one win and three defeats shows the dependence on home conditions. Haverfordwest's record is more volatile: three wins, one draw and five defeats from nine, no away wins, five failures to score and a five-match losing streak that sits awkwardly beside their recent upturn. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast, as Colwyn Bay average 2.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded overall, with home figures of 2.40 for and 0.60 against, while Haverfordwest average just 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, including only 0.30 goals per away game. The last-five records qualify the raw form lines, since Colwyn Bay have won four of five with 14 goals scored and only three conceded, whereas Haverfordwest have won three of five but scored just seven and lost their only away outing 2-0 at Llandudno. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight, as Haverfordwest lead the six meetings with three wins to Colwyn Bay's two, including a 1-0 home win in November 2025 and a 5-0 rout in November 2023, though Colwyn Bay's 3-0 home win in September 2025 shows the fixture can swing sharply. Overall, the evidence points to a plausible but uncertain Colwyn Bay win, supported by home strength, attacking output and the Poisson gap, but tempered by a near-even probability split, a hostile head-to-head history and Haverfordwest's recent improvement.

Predicted winner

Colwyn Bay

Betting advice

Winner : Colwyn Bay

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Haverfordwest County AFC 1–0 Colwyn Bay (15 Nov 2025)
2. Colwyn Bay 3–0 Haverfordwest County AFC (13 Sep 2025)
3. Haverfordwest County AFC 3–1 Colwyn Bay (13 Apr 2024)
4. Colwyn Bay 0–0 Haverfordwest County AFC (02 Mar 2024)
5. Haverfordwest County AFC 5–0 Colwyn Bay (04 Nov 2023)