Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Colonia Moscardó vs Pozuelo Alarcón Prediction
Match prediction
- The model's 35% home and 35% draw probabilities leave the Colonia Moscardó winner advice only narrowly separated from the draw outcome.
- Colonia Moscardó's superior form, attack, defence and Poisson ratings support the home-side advice despite the flat win probability.
- Pozuelo Alarcón's head-to-head and goals edge conflict with the model's home lean, qualifying the confidence in that advice.
- Both teams remain unbeaten across four league games, so the draw probability is a genuine threat to the winner selection.
- Colonia Moscardó's home record of two wins without defeat strengthens the case for backing them at home.
- Pozuelo Alarcón's three draws in four matches suggest a tight contest, reinforcing the narrow margin in the probabilities.
- Predicted winner
- Colonia Moscardó
- Betting advice
- Winner : Colonia Moscardó
- Home win probability
- 35%
- Draw probability
- 35%
- Away win probability
- 30%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Colonia Moscardó | Pozuelo Alarcón |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Attack | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Defence | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| Poisson | 84.0% | 16.0% |
| H2h | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| Goals | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| Total | 53.8% | 46.2% |
Team form and goal analysis
Colonia Moscardó
Recent form: WDWD.
Average goals scored: 2.30 per match.
Pozuelo Alarcón
Recent form: DDDW.
Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Pozuelo Alarcón 1–2 Colonia Moscardó (28 Jan 2024)
- Colonia Moscardó 1–1 Pozuelo Alarcón (09 Sep 2023)
- Pozuelo Alarcón 3–0 Colonia Moscardó (20 Feb 2022)
- Colonia Moscardó 0–2 Pozuelo Alarcón (24 Oct 2021)