Colombia vs Paraguay Prediction
Match prediction
- Colombia and Paraguay share identical 35% win probabilities, so the draw-inclusive advice reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a clear edge.
- Paraguay's superior recent form and defensive record conflict with Colombia's dominant head-to-head history, explaining why the model avoids backing Colombia outright.
- Colombia's attack and Paraguay's are rated equally, yet Colombia's defence is far weaker, which is why the draw carries equal weight to a home win.
- Paraguay's three clean sheets in four matches suggest a low-scoring game, supporting the caution behind the double-chance advice.
- Colombia's head-to-head record is strong but recent meetings trended toward draws and narrow margins, weakening any outright-win case.
- The Poisson model favours Paraguay despite Colombia's historical edge, a conflict that justifies covering both Colombia and the draw.
- Predicted winner
- Colombia
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Colombia or draw
- Home win probability
- 35%
- Draw probability
- 35%
- Away win probability
- 30%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Colombia | Paraguay |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Attack | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Defence | 22.0% | 78.0% |
| Poisson | 28.0% | 72.0% |
| H2h | 85.0% | 15.0% |
| Goals | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| Total | 49.8% | 50.2% |
Team form and goal analysis
Colombia
Recent form: LLWWD.
Average goals scored: 1.60 per match.
Paraguay
Recent form: WLWW.
Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Colombia 2–2 Paraguay (26 Mar 2025)
- Colombia 2–1 Paraguay (25 Jun 2024)
- Paraguay 0–1 Colombia (22 Nov 2023)
- Colombia 2–0 Paraguay (20 Nov 2022)
- Colombia 0–0 Paraguay (17 Nov 2021)