Colegios Diocesanos vs Almazán Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model favours Almazán as the winner, but its 45% away probability is matched exactly by a 45% draw probability, with Colegios Diocesanos given only 10%, so the advice is better read as a lean than a clear edge. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Almazán dominate form, attack and Poisson at 100.00 against 0.00, yet the head-to-head and goals splits run the other way at 71.00 for Colegios Diocesanos versus 29.00 for Almazán, while the overall totals of 58.30 and 41.70 still tilt toward the visitors. The team analysis explains part of this tension: Colegios Diocesanos have lost all three league games with a form string of LLL, failing to score in every one, whereas Almazán are unbeaten on WDD with one win and two draws. Almazán's goal profile is also more functional, averaging 1.70 scored and 1.30 conceded, compared with 0.00 scored and 2.70 conceded for Colegios Diocesanos, which supports the away lean even if the sample is only three matches. The last-five records widen the gap in current results, as Colegios Diocesanos show five straight defeats including 0-3 losses to UD Santa Marta and Burgos Promesas, while Almazán have two wins and three draws across their last five. Almazán's scoring is spread across the match, with 40% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes and further strikes in the 16-30, 46-60 and 76-90 windows, suggesting they can score at different stages rather than relying on one burst. By contrast, Colegios Diocesanos have conceded 50% of their goals in the 76-90 window, a late-match vulnerability that could matter if the game stays close. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight, since Colegios Diocesanos lead it 71.00 to 29.00 and have won four of the eight meetings, including a 1-0 home win in March 2026 and a 2-0 away win in November 2025, so recent history does not simply follow the form table. With no under-over advice supplied and the draw probability equal to the away probability, the evidence supports Almazán as the more likely winner while leaving the draw as a genuine alternative rather than a settled outcome.

Predicted winner

Almazán

Betting advice

Winner : Almazán

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Colegios Diocesanos 1–0 Almazán (21 Mar 2026)
2. Almazán 0–2 Colegios Diocesanos (09 Nov 2025)
3. Almazán 1–1 Colegios Diocesanos (05 May 2024)
4. Colegios Diocesanos 1–0 Almazán (13 Jan 2024)
5. Almazán 1–0 Colegios Diocesanos (27 Mar 2022)