Cobán Imperial vs Aurora Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward an Aurora double chance, assigning 45% to both the draw and an away win while leaving Cobán Imperial at just 10%, so the advice effectively treats this as a match Aurora is unlikely to lose. That framing is supported by the form comparison, where Aurora's 67.00 dwarfs Cobán's 33.00, and by the Poisson split of 55.00 to 45.00, though the attack and defence metrics are far less decisive, with attack at 55.00 versus 45.00 and defence dead level at 50.00 apiece. The head-to-head section is also perfectly balanced at 50.00 each and shows no clear edge, since the recent meetings include a 0-0 draw at this venue, a 1-0 Aurora home win, a 2-0 Cobán home win and a 1-1 draw in Aurora, which together suggest low-scoring, tightly contested fixtures rather than dominance. Aurora's overall record of four wins and six defeats with no draws is notably volatile, and all four wins came at home, while their away form reads zero wins and four losses, which directly qualifies the away-win component of the advice. Cobán's own profile is the opposite kind of inconsistency: one win, four draws and five losses, with a four-match losing streak earlier in the sequence but three draws in their last five, including 1-1 at Deportivo San Pedro, 2-2 against Comunicaciones and 0-0 at Xelajú. The goals analysis adds a further caution, since Cobán average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded while Aurora average 1.40 scored but 1.60 conceded, and Aurora's away concession rate of 2.50 per game is the most extreme figure in that section. Both teams also show a strong tendency toward low totals, with nine of ten Cobán matches and eight of ten Aurora matches staying under 2.5 goals, and the late-game pattern is striking because Cobán concede 50% of their goals after the 76th minute while Aurora score 35.71% of theirs between the 61st and 75th. The last-five records reinforce the tension rather than resolving it, as Cobán have drawn three and lost two without winning, whereas Aurora have won two and lost three, so Aurora's recent edge rests on a small and alternating sample. Taken together, the evidence supports the draw-or-Aurora advice mainly through Aurora's superior form and Poisson scores, but the level defence and head-to-head metrics, Aurora's winless away record and Cobán's draw-heavy recent run mean the draw half of that double chance looks at least as plausible as an away victory.

Predicted winner

Aurora

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Aurora

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Cobán Imperial 0–0 Aurora (01 Apr 2026)
2. Aurora 1–0 Cobán Imperial (15 Feb 2026)
3. Cobán Imperial 2–0 Aurora (02 Nov 2025)
4. Aurora 1–1 Cobán Imperial (24 Aug 2025)
5. Cobán Imperial 1–1 Aurora (30 Nov 2014)