Churriana Vega vs UD San Pedro Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward UD San Pedro with a draw-or-away double chance combined with over 2.5 goals, yet its own probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% away against only 10% for a Churriana Vega win, so the advice is really a hedge rather than a confident away pick. The comparison metrics reinforce that tension: UD San Pedro leads on form (67 vs 33), head-to-head (80 vs 20), goals (75 vs 25) and overall total (60.2 vs 39.8), while Churriana Vega dominates attack (71 vs 29) and the Poisson measure is extreme at 100 versus 0, a split that suggests the two teams are being rewarded for different things. Defence is the one genuinely neutral column at 50 apiece, which matters because both sides have conceded four goals across three league games, so neither back line has separated itself. Churriana Vega's form line of LWL hides a 4-1 home win over Malaga City alongside away defeats to Alhaurino and Torre del Mar, and their goals profile is strikingly home-weighted at 4.00 scored per home game versus 0.50 away, with five goals spread evenly across five different 15-minute bands. UD San Pedro's WLW is the mirror image, built on two 1-0 home wins with clean sheets against Almería II and Málaga II and a 4-0 away collapse at Granada II, leaving them with 1.00 goals per home game and 0.00 away, and all four goals conceded arriving before the 60th minute. Those last-five records extend the pattern: Churriana Vega's two most recent entries are a 1-2 loss and a 4-1 win, while UD San Pedro's include the 4-0 defeat plus a 0-2 loss at Cacereño, so both teams' recent samples are small and volatile rather than steadily trending. The head-to-head record is equally thin, just two 2025 meetings producing a 1-1 draw at Churriana Vega and a 2-0 UD San Pedro home win, which supports the away side's edge but offers little basis for the over 2.5 goals half of the advice. The goals data actively complicates that over 2.5 component, since Churriana Vega have gone under 2.5 in two of three matches and UD San Pedro in all three, and the away side has yet to score on the road this season. The synthesis therefore points to a low-scoring, home-strong but away-fragile profile on both sides, meaning the double chance is better supported than the goals line, and the 45-45 draw-away split correctly captures how little separates these teams.

Predicted winner

UD San Pedro

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or UD San Pedro and +2.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+2.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Churriana Vega 1–1 UD San Pedro (03 May 2026)
2. UD San Pedro 2–0 Churriana Vega (14 Jan 2026)