Chrudim vs Pardubice II Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Pardubice II a 45% chance of winning and the same 45% to a draw, leaving Chrudim at just 10%, which is why the advice is a double chance on draw or Pardubice II rather than a straight away win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Pardubice II lead on form (73 versus 27), attack (72 versus 28), defence (60 versus 40), goals (67 versus 33) and total (64.6 versus 35.4), yet the Poisson estimate is nearly level at 51 versus 49, suggesting the underlying goal expectation is far less one-sided than the headline splits. The head-to-head section is thin but consistent with the advice, since the only recorded meeting, a February 2024 friendly, ended 1-2 to Pardubice II away from home, giving the h2h split of 0 to 100. Chrudim's team analysis shows a stuttering LWDLDDL sequence with one win, three draws and three losses in seven games, and although they have scored in six of seven matches, their away defence has conceded 11 goals at 2.80 per game, including a 6-1 loss. Pardubice II's LWWDDWL record is stronger with three wins and only two defeats, and their goals analysis shows 15 scored at 2.10 per game against just 8 conceded at 1.10, plus three clean sheets and no failures to score. The last-five records reinforce that gap: Chrudim have three draws, one loss and one win with only four goals scored, while Pardubice II have two wins, two draws and one loss, including a 7-0 home win over Čáslav and a 1-0 away win at Sokol Brozany. The main tension is that Pardubice II's most recent outing was a 2-3 home defeat to Benátky nad Jizerou, and their away scoring average drops to 1.30, so their dominance is not absolute and a draw remains a plausible outcome. Chrudim's home scoring average of 2.00 is also notably better than their away output, which helps explain why the model keeps the draw probability as high as the away win rather than backing Pardubice II outright. Overall, the evidence points to Pardubice II as the stronger side on form, defence and goal difference, but the level Poisson estimate, Chrudim's home scoring and the small head-to-head sample mean the draw-or-away double chance is a qualified rather than confident position.

Predicted winner

Pardubice II

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Pardubice II

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Chrudim 1–2 Pardubice II (07 Feb 2024)