Chrudim II vs Spartak Police n/Metují Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Chrudim II only a 10% chance of winning, with the draw and Spartak Police n/Metují each at 45%, and its advice is a double chance on draw or Spartak Police plus over 1.5 goals. That leaning is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Spartak holds clear edges in form (75 versus 25), defence (57 versus 43), Poisson (66 versus 34), head-to-head (91 versus 9), goals (69 versus 31) and total (68 versus 32), while attack is the one category split evenly at 50-50. The team analysis explains why the home side is so lightly regarded: Chrudim II have played seven matches without a win (one draw, six defeats, form LLLDLL), whereas Spartak have two wins and five losses from the same number of games, so the gap is real but neither side is in convincing overall shape. Both defences look vulnerable, since Chrudim II concede 3.70 goals per game and Spartak 2.40, and neither team has kept a clean sheet, which supports the over 1.5 goals element of the advice. The goals analysis adds nuance, as both teams have scored exactly 10 goals at 1.40 per game, yet Chrudim II's 1.5-goal line shows three overs against four unders and Spartak's shows the same split, suggesting the goal expectation is moderate rather than overwhelming. Recent form sharpens the contrast: Chrudim II's last five produced four defeats and a 4-4 draw, including a 6-1 loss at Kosmonosy and a 5-0 loss at Trutnov, while Spartak's last five brought one win and four defeats, with a 3-1 home win over Chlumec nad Cidlinou the only bright spot. The head-to-head record is the strongest single argument for the away side, as Spartak have won three of the four meetings, including 2-0 at home in April 2026 and 4-1 away in April 2025, with the only exception a 2-2 draw in September 2025. However, the small samples matter: four head-to-head matches and five recent games per team cannot fully establish a pattern, and Spartak's own five defeats in seven league games qualify any assumption that they are reliably stronger. Overall, the evidence coheres around the existing draw-or-Spartak double chance with over 1.5 goals, but the shared attacking output and both teams' defensive frailty mean the outcome remains uncertain rather than assured.

Predicted winner

Spartak Police n/Metují

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Spartak Police n/Metují and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Spartak Police n/Metují 2–0 Chrudim II (19 Apr 2026)
2. Chrudim II 2–2 Spartak Police n/Metují (20 Sep 2025)
3. Chrudim II 1–4 Spartak Police n/Metují (12 Apr 2025)
4. Spartak Police n/Metují 3–2 Chrudim II (16 Oct 2024)