Chorley vs Spalding United Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Spalding United with a double-chance draw-or-away call, assigning 45% to the draw and 45% to an away win while leaving Chorley at just 10%, a split that reflects Spalding's stronger overall profile rather than any head-to-head history, since the head-to-head section is empty. That edge is echoed across the comparison metrics, where Spalding lead on form (72 versus 28), attack (58 versus 42), defence (73 versus 27) and Poisson (66 versus 34), producing a total of 67.3 against Chorley's 32.8. The goals data sharpen the contrast: Chorley have scored 14 but conceded 16 at 1.80 per game, while Spalding have scored 13 yet conceded only 6, an average of 0.70 that underpins their defensive rating. Chorley's threat is heavily venue-dependent, with 10 of their 14 goals coming at home at 2.50 per game, but they have kept only one clean sheet and failed to score twice, so their attacking output has been volatile. Spalding's form line of WLDLWDWWW, ending in three straight wins, and Chorley's LLWWDDLWL, ending in a win but containing four defeats, suggest the momentum sits with the visitors. The last-five records reinforce this: Spalding have won four and drawn one, scoring at least twice in each victory and conceding just twice across those games, whereas Chorley have alternated, including a 5-2 home win over Darlington 1883 but also a 4-0 loss at Oxford City and a 2-0 defeat at King's Lynn Town. Spalding's defensive record is notably tight, with no opponent scoring more than once in their last five and three clean sheets overall, which makes the low 10% home probability look consistent with the evidence. The main qualification is that Chorley's home scoring rate of 2.50 per game is the single strongest attacking figure in the data, so the model's confidence in a Spalding win or draw may understate the risk of a home upset. With no head-to-head record available, the assessment rests entirely on current form and goal profiles, and the near-equal 45% draw and away probabilities indicate the model sees the result as finely balanced rather than a clear Spalding victory.

Predicted winner

Spalding United

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Spalding United

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.