Chisola vs Ligorna Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Ligorna a 45% chance of winning and Chisola only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, which is why the advice is a double chance on draw or Ligorna rather than a straight away win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where form is perfectly level at 50.00 for both sides, so recent momentum alone does not separate them. The sharper split comes from attack and defence: Ligorna rates 78.00 for attack against Chisola's 22.00, while Chisola's defensive score of 73.00 contrasts with Ligorna's 27.00, suggesting a clash between Chisola's resilience and Ligorna's greater offensive threat. The Poisson and head-to-head columns reinforce that lean, with Ligorna at 0.00 versus Chisola's 100.00 on Poisson and 85.00 versus 15.00 in the head-to-head comparison, though the goals and total columns are more balanced at 80.00 versus 20.00 and 64.00 versus 36.00 respectively. Chisola's team analysis shows a modest LWD form over three matches, with one home win and one clean sheet, but their goals analysis reveals only 0.70 goals scored per game and 1.00 conceded, underlining a low-scoring profile. Ligorna's DLLW record over four matches is less convincing, yet they average 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded, and their goals-for distribution is heavily weighted to the 76-90 minute window at 42.86%, hinting at late attacking pressure. The last-five records add nuance: Chisola have one win, one draw and two defeats, including a 1-0 loss at Ligorna in May 2026, while Ligorna have two wins, one draw and two defeats, with a 2-0 away win at Celle Varazze and a 5-3 home win over Città di Varese. The head-to-head record is the strongest single strand, showing Ligorna unbeaten in the last five meetings with three wins and two draws, including a 4-0 home victory in November 2025 and a 1-0 home win in May 2026. Taken together, the evidence supports the draw-or-Ligorna advice because Ligorna's attacking edge and head-to-head dominance offset Chisola's better defensive numbers and home advantage, but the level form and Chisola's clean-sheet capability mean a draw remains a genuine possibility rather than a formality.

Predicted winner

Ligorna

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Ligorna

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Ligorna 1–0 Chisola (10 May 2026)
2. Chisola 0–0 Ligorna (12 Apr 2026)
3. Ligorna 4–0 Chisola (30 Nov 2025)
4. Chisola 2–2 Ligorna (23 Mar 2025)
5. Ligorna 1–0 Chisola (10 Nov 2024)