Chester vs Worksop Town Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Worksop Town in a double-chance combination with under 3.5 goals, giving Chester only a 10% win probability while splitting the remaining 90% evenly between a draw and an away win. That stance is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Worksop lead on form (75 versus 25), attack (63 versus 38), head-to-head (85 versus 15) and goals (64 versus 36), although Chester's higher Poisson value of 57 against 43 is a notable counter-signal that the model itself does not follow. The head-to-head record reinforces the away lean, since Worksop won the most recent meeting 1-0 at Deva Stadium and also took a 2-1 home victory in 2025, with the older 2020 and 2012 cup ties producing draws and a Worksop win. Recent form complicates that picture, however: Chester's last five read W-L-L-D-L with just four goals scored and only one win, while Worksop's last five show W-D-W-L-W including a 5-2 home win over AFC Telford United and a 2-0 win against Southport. Over the full nine-game sample the two teams are actually level on wins (four each) and total goals scored (nine each), so Worksop's advantage rests more on momentum and defensive solidity than on a large class gap. Chester's goals analysis shows a modest 1.00 goals-per-game average with a stronger 0.50 conceded at home, and their matches have stayed under 2.5 goals in all nine, which supports the low-scoring half of the advice. Worksop also average 1.00 goals scored but concede 1.30 per game, and their games have likewise gone under 2.5 goals in all nine, so the under 3.5 element looks well supported even though their 5-2 result shows they can occasionally break that pattern. The main tension is that Chester's superior Poisson rating and stingy home defence suggest the draw half of the double chance may carry more weight than the model's even 45-45 split implies, while the small five-game samples and the age of some head-to-head meetings mean these trends should be treated as indicative rather than decisive.

Predicted winner

Worksop Town

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Worksop Town and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Chester 0–1 Worksop Town (03 Jan 2026)
2. Worksop Town 2–1 Chester (30 Aug 2025)
3. Worksop Town 2–2 Chester (03 Oct 2020)
4. Worksop Town 2–0 Chester (14 Nov 2012)
5. Chester 2–2 Worksop Town (10 Nov 2012)