Chesham United vs Maidenhead Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Chesham United a 45% home win and 45% draw probability against Maidenhead's 10%, framing the advice as a double chance on Chesham or draw rather than an outright home win. That caution is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Chesham lead on form (58 vs 42), attack (67 vs 33), head-to-head (80 vs 20) and goals (60 vs 40), yet the Poisson split is nearly level at 49 vs 51 and defence is deadlocked at 50 apiece. Chesham's nine-game record of three wins, one draw and five losses, including a three-match losing streak, shows a volatile side whose 16 goals scored and 15 conceded translate into a modest 1.80 for and 1.70 against per game. Maidenhead's two wins, four draws and three losses with only eight goals scored and eleven conceded point to a low-scoring, draw-prone profile, and their four home draws against zero away draws suggest their stalemates are venue-specific rather than a general tendency. The last-five records reinforce that contrast: Chesham have won their two most recent matches 7-2 over Ware and 4-1 at Horsham after earlier defeats, while Maidenhead have lost 1-3 to Ebbsfleet, drawn 2-2 with Billericay, lost 0-4 to Torquay, won 3-0 at Dover and drawn 1-1 with AFC Totton. Maidenhead's away form is the complicating factor, since their two wins and both away clean sheets came on the road, and their 0.80 goals-against average away is far better than their 1.60 at home. The head-to-head record is small but leans Chesham's way, with a 1-1 draw at The Meadow and a 2-1 Chesham win at York Road, matching the 80-20 split, though two matches is too thin a sample to carry much weight. Chesham's goal timing is spread fairly evenly across the match, whereas Maidenhead score half their goals in the 16-30 window and concede 36% in the 46-60 period, hinting at a side vulnerable after half-time. Overall, the evidence supports Chesham as the stronger and more in-form team, but the level Poisson and defensive metrics, Maidenhead's away resilience and the high draw probability justify the cautious double-chance framing rather than confidence in a home victory.

Predicted winner

Chesham United

Betting advice

Double chance : Chesham United or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Chesham United 1–1 Maidenhead (24 Jan 2026)
2. Maidenhead 1–2 Chesham United (09 Aug 2025)