Cherno more II vs Botev Novi Pazar Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Cherno more II with a "win or draw" double chance combined with over 1.5 goals, assigning 45% to a home win, 45% to a draw, and only 10% to an away victory. That split is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Cherno more II holds clear edges in form (53 vs 47), defence (62 vs 38), Poisson (69 vs 31), head-to-head (100 vs 0), goals (80 vs 20), and total (62.4 vs 37.6), while Botev Novi Pazar's only advantage is a modest attack score of 52 against 48. The head-to-head record is the strongest single pillar, with Cherno more II winning three of six meetings and, more importantly, never losing at home in this sample, including a 3-1 win in May 2026 and a 5-0 rout in 2023. However, the two most recent away fixtures in that series went Botev's way, which tempers any suggestion that the home side is untouchable and helps explain why the draw probability is as high as the home win. Cherno more II's last five (LWLWW) show a home-heavy pattern of three wins and one loss at home plus an away defeat, and their goals analysis supports the over 1.5 element with 2.00 goals scored per game and only 1.00 conceded, though their 2.5-goal over/under splits are nearly even. Botev Novi Pazar's last five (WWDLD) look superficially balanced, but the underlying goals data is far more volatile: 2.20 scored per game overall masks a 3.00 away average, while 1.60 conceded per game hides a 3.50 away average and a 4-0 loss at Chernolomets 1919. That volatility cuts both ways for the advice, since Botev's away matches have produced both a 6-3 win and a 4-0 defeat, making the +1.5 goals component look well supported even if the double-chance leg carries more risk than the probabilities imply. The main tension is that Botev's attack score and their occasional high-scoring away performances could produce a surprise result, but their weak defence score and poor away defensive record make a clean away win the least likely of the three outcomes. Overall, the evidence coheres around a home-favoured, goal-friendly match, though the small five-match samples and the recent away wins in the head-to-head mean the draw and over components deserve as much attention as the home-win probability.

Predicted winner

Cherno more II

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Cherno more II or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Cherno more II 3–1 Botev Novi Pazar (30 May 2026)
2. Botev Novi Pazar 1–3 Cherno more II (07 Dec 2025)
3. Cherno more II 2–0 Botev Novi Pazar (02 Mar 2025)
4. Botev Novi Pazar 2–3 Cherno more II (25 Aug 2024)
5. Cherno more II 5–0 Botev Novi Pazar (12 Mar 2023)