Cherepovets vs Dinamo Vologda Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Cherepovets win or draw, with home, draw, and away probabilities of 35%, 35%, and 30% respectively, so the double-chance advice reflects a narrow edge rather than a clear favourite. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Cherepovets dominate form (78 versus 22), attack (62 versus 38), defence (56 versus 44), and Poisson (56 versus 44), yet the goals comparison flips sharply toward Dinamo Vologda at 75 versus 25. The head-to-head comparison is even more contradictory, showing 91 for Dinamo Vologda against just 9 for Cherepovets, which suggests the recent meetings have favoured the visitors despite Cherepovets' stronger general profile. Cherepovets' season record of nine wins, three draws, and ten losses across 22 matches, with 28 goals scored and 35 conceded, points to an inconsistent side whose form string includes a five-win streak but also a four-loss run. Dinamo Vologda's record of five wins, six draws, and ten losses in 21 matches, with only 25 goals scored and 27 conceded, describes a lower-scoring team that has been harder to beat than its win total suggests. The goals analysis supports that reading, as Dinamo Vologda average just 1.20 goals per game overall and only 0.80 away, while Cherepovets average 1.30 for and 1.60 against, and both teams' under-2.5 goal counts are heavily dominant. The last-five records add further tension: Cherepovets won their two most recent matches 4-1 and 3-2 before three straight defeats, whereas Dinamo Vologda have two draws and three losses, including a 0-0 stalemate and a 0-2 away defeat. The head-to-head record shows a 2-2 draw in June 2026, a 1-0 Dinamo Vologda home win in August 2025, and a 0-2 Cherepovets away win in May 2025, plus a 2024 cup win for Dinamo Vologda, so the fixture has recently been tight and low-scoring rather than one-sided. Overall, the double chance for Cherepovets or draw is plausible given their superior form and attacking metrics, but the strong Dinamo Vologda head-to-head and goals-comparison figures, along with the modest 35% home probability, mean the edge is far from secure.

Predicted winner

Cherepovets

Betting advice

Double chance : Cherepovets or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Dinamo Vologda 2–2 Cherepovets (07 Jun 2026)
2. Dinamo Vologda 1–0 Cherepovets (24 Aug 2025)
3. Cherepovets 0–2 Dinamo Vologda (04 May 2025)
4. Cherepovets 0–1 Dinamo Vologda (30 Jul 2024)