Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Stargard Szczeciński Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output gives Stargard Szczeciński a 50% win probability and Chemik Bydgoszcz 0%, with the remaining 50% assigned to a draw, which is why the advice is framed as a double chance on the draw or Stargard rather than an outright away win. That caution is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Stargard leads on form (71 versus 29), attack (63 versus 37), defence (59 versus 41) and Poisson (69 versus 31), yet the total splits only 65.5 to 34.5, leaving a meaningful gap that the draw probability absorbs. The head-to-head, goals and h2h comparison fields are all populated with zeros, and the head-to-head record itself is empty, so no direct meeting evidence is available to reinforce or contradict the model. Chemik's team analysis shows a winless eight-game profile of five draws and three losses, with no clean sheets and no failed-to-score games, which suggests they are competitive enough to avoid defeat but rarely able to convert that into wins. Stargard's nine-game record of four wins, two draws and three losses is more volatile, including a 4-1 away defeat and a 2-4 home loss, but also a 1-5 away win and a 4-2 home win, so their edge is real yet not dominant. The goals analysis supports that reading: Stargard average 2.10 goals for and 1.80 against, while Chemik average 1.30 for and 2.30 against, meaning Chemik concede more than they score and Stargard score more than they concede. Chemik's last five are three draws and two defeats, including a 0-3 loss to Piast Gliwice and a 1-4 loss at Kotwica Kórnik, whereas Stargard's last five contain three wins, one draw and one loss, with a 2-0 away win at Bałtyk Koszalin and a 5-1 away win at Flota Świnoujście. The minute distributions add nuance rather than a clear edge, as Chemik score 30% of their goals after the 76th minute and concede 38.89% in the 31-45 window, while Stargard score 25% in the opening 15 minutes and concede 26.67% in each of the 16-30 and 31-45 windows. Overall, the evidence points toward Stargard being the stronger side and the draw being a genuine possibility, which is why the double chance is the more defensible expression of the model's 50-50 split than a single winner.

Predicted winner

Stargard Szczeciński

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Stargard Szczeciński

Home win probability

0%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

50%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.