Chełmianka Chełm vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Chełmianka Chełm via a win-or-draw double chance combined with under 3.5 goals, assigning 45% to a home win, 45% to a draw, and only 10% to Podlasie Biała Podlaska, which already frames the away side as a marginal possibility rather than a genuine threat. That framing is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Chełmianka dominates form (73 vs 27), attack (75 vs 25), defence (86 vs 14), and Poisson (89 vs 11), while the head-to-head split sits level at 50-50 and the goals comparison is far closer at 55-45, suggesting the model's confidence rests more on current-season performance than on this specific matchup. The team analysis supports that reading: Chełmianka are unbeaten across nine matches with seven wins and two draws, including a seven-match winning streak, whereas Podlasie have three wins, two draws, and four defeats, with all four losses coming away from home. Chełmianka's defensive record is especially striking, with seven clean sheets in nine and only two goals conceded all season, both at home, while Podlasie have failed to score in five of nine and have been shut out in four of five away fixtures. The goals analysis adds nuance to the under 3.5 component, since Chełmianka have stayed under 3.5 in all nine matches and Podlasie likewise in all nine, yet Chełmianka's scoring is concentrated between the 16th and 45th minutes and Podlasie concede half their goals in the 46th to 60th window, hinting at a possible second-half vulnerability rather than a high-scoring game. The last-five records sharpen the contrast: Chełmianka have three wins and two draws with only one goal conceded, while Podlasie have one win, one draw, and three defeats, scoring just twice and failing to score in three of those five. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight, as the ten meetings are evenly divided with four Chełmianka wins, four Podlasie wins, and two draws, and Podlasie have won at Chełmianka's ground as recently as August 2025, which cautions against treating the form gap as decisive. Overall, the evidence coheres around a low-scoring match where Chełmianka are clearly the stronger side but the historical parity and Podlasie's occasional away threat mean the draw component of the double chance carries real weight, and the under 3.5 goals element looks well supported by both teams' season-long scoring profiles.

Predicted winner

Chełmianka Chełm

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Chełmianka Chełm or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Chełmianka Chełm 1–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska (23 Nov 2025)
2. Podlasie Biała Podlaska 0–3 Chełmianka Chełm (02 Aug 2025)
3. Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1–1 Chełmianka Chełm (14 Mar 2025)
4. Chełmianka Chełm 0–1 Podlasie Biała Podlaska (21 Aug 2024)
5. Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3–1 Chełmianka Chełm (01 Jun 2024)