Charlotte vs Chicago Fire Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Charlotte a 45% home win probability and 45% draw probability against Chicago Fire’s 10%, framing the advice as a double chance on Charlotte or draw rather than a clear outright win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Charlotte’s form score of 79.00 and defensive score of 71.00 dwarf Chicago’s 21.00 and 29.00, while the Poisson split of 61.00 to 39.00 also leans toward the home side. However, the head-to-head comparison runs the other way at 40.00 to 60.00, and the goals comparison is similarly unfavorable at 43.00 to 57.00, which helps explain why the model stops short of backing Charlotte outright. Charlotte’s season record of 12 wins, seven draws and seven losses is built on home strength of seven wins, four draws and only two defeats, whereas Chicago’s 11 wins, six draws and eight losses include a much weaker away profile of four wins, five draws and four defeats. The goals analysis reinforces that split: Charlotte concede only 1.00 per home match versus 1.80 away, while Chicago concede 1.80 both home and away, and Charlotte’s 47 goals for are slightly better than Chicago’s 45 despite Chicago’s higher goals comparison score. Recent form also tilts toward Charlotte, whose last five produced three wins, two draws and no defeats with only four goals conceded, while Chicago’s last five yielded three draws and two defeats, including a 3-0 loss at Nashville and a 2-1 home defeat to New England. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight, as Chicago won the most recent meeting 2-1 at Soldier Field and lead the nine-match series with five wins to Charlotte’s four, although Charlotte’s 4-1 home win in May 2025 shows the venue can reverse that pattern. Both teams’ goal-timing profiles add nuance rather than a decisive edge, with Charlotte scoring 18.75% of goals after the 76th minute and conceding 25.00% there, while Chicago score 25.00% in the 61st-75th window but concede 30.77% late. Overall, the form, defensive and Poisson evidence jointly justify the Charlotte-or-draw advice, but the head-to-head and goals-comparison signals mean the draw portion of that double chance carries real weight rather than being a formality.

Predicted winner

Charlotte

Betting advice

Double chance : Charlotte or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Chicago Fire 2–1 Charlotte (02 Aug 2026)
2. Chicago Fire 3–2 Charlotte (29 Jun 2025)
3. Charlotte 1–4 Chicago Fire (18 May 2025)
4. Charlotte 4–3 Chicago Fire (03 Oct 2024)
5. Chicago Fire 0–1 Charlotte (16 May 2024)